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Eredivisie
Referee: D Higler
AZ Alkmaar
S T U T U
2–2
Full-time
Ajax
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
33%
100%
Points per game
1,3
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
2,8
3,5
Scored
1,5
2,5
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+1,5
This season — Eredivisie · 27/31 matches
Win Ø 69%
56%
81%
Points per game
1,8
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 69%
70%
68%
Both score Ø 50%
70%
29%
Average goals
3,1
3,4
Scored
1,9
2,9
Conceded
1,3
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,6
+2,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

40% Possession 60%
12 Shots 13
4 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
0 Corners 10
1 Offside 3
15 Free kicks against 11
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 5. · Ajax 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Ajax 31 25 3 3 +74 78
2 PSV Eindhoven 31 24 2 5 +42 74
3 Feyenoord 31 21 4 6 +42 67
4 Twente 32 18 8 6 +14 62
5 AZ Alkmaar 27 15 4 8 +17 49
6 Utrecht 30 12 9 9 +9 45
7 Vitesse 27 13 3 11 -8 42
8 Nijmegen 32 10 8 14 -12 38
9 Groningen 32 9 9 14 -10 36
10 Go Ahead Eagles 32 10 6 16 -11 36
11 Heerenveen 29 9 8 12 -8 35
12 Cambuur 32 10 5 17 -18 35
13 Heracles 32 9 7 16 -12 34
14 Waalwijk 32 7 11 14 -15 32
15 For Sittard 32 9 5 18 -31 32
16 Sparta Rotterdam 32 6 11 15 -22 29
17 Willem II 32 8 5 19 -28 29
18 Zwolle 32 7 6 19 -23 27

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

AZ Alkmaar Ajax
42′
B. Brobbey 0–1
K. Taylor
Half-time 1–1
1–1 V. Pavlidis
O. Wijndal
62′
66′
🔁 N. Mazraoui
↦ D. Rensch
66′
🔁 S. Berghuis
↦ K. Taylor
70′
🔁 M. Daramy
↦ B. Brobbey
Jordy Clasie 🟨
72′
2–1 H. Evjen
J. Karlsson
75′
78′
🟨 Davy Klaassen
82′
🔁 M. Kudus
↦ D. Blind
86′
E. Álvarez 2–2
S. Berghuis
T. Reijnders 🔁
↦ H. Evjen
88′
Vangelis Pavlidis 🟨
92′
Z. Aboukhlal 🔁
↦ V. Pavlidis
94′
Owen Wijndal 🟨
95′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

AZ Alkmaar

4-3-3
1 P. Vindahl G
4 B. Martins Indi D
3 P. Hatzidiakos D
5 O. Wijndal D
2 Y. Sugawara D
20 J. Clasie M
6 F. Midtsjø M
10 D. de Wit F
18 H. Evjen M
9 V. Pavlidis F
11 J. Karlsson F
Bench (12)
24 T. Reijnders
7 Z. Aboukhlal
21 E. Poku
8 K. Sowah
16 B. Reus
26 M. Kerkez
14 P. Koopmeiners
12 H. Verhulst
31 S. Beukema
23 M. Taabouni
15 A. Witry
34 Z. Buurmeester

Coach: P. Jansen

Ajax

4-3-1-2
1 M. Stekelenburg G
17 D. Blind D
31 N. Tagliafico D
2 J. Timber D
15 D. Rensch D
6 D. Klaassen M
4 E. Álvarez M
25 K. Taylor M
10 D. Tadić M
22 S. Haller F
18 B. Brobbey F
Bench (11)
12 N. Mazraoui
23 S. Berghuis
30 M. Daramy
20 M. Kudus
27 M. Ihattaren
16 J. Gorter
46 A. Salah-Eddine
44 Y. Regeer
33 P. Tytoń
41 E. Llansana
40 S. Hansen

Coach: E. ten Hag

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,34
U ✓
4,08
B
1,73
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,60
U2,5
2,31
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

D Higler · 133 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.