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Champions League
Referee: Artur Soares Dias
Liverpool
T S S U T
2–1
Full-time
Ajax
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
33%
100%
Points per game
1,3
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
3,7
3,8
Scored
2,3
3,7
Conceded
1,3
0,2
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+3,5
This season — Champions League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
100%
0%
Average goals
5,0
4,0
Scored
1,0
4,0
Conceded
4,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
-3,0
+4,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

57% Possession 43%
24 Shots 3
10 Shots on target 1
4 Blocked shots 0
0 Goalkeeper saves 8
10 Corners 0
2 Offside 4
12 Free kicks against 19
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Liverpool Ajax
1–0 Mohamed Salah ⚽
Diogo Jota
17′
27′
⚽ M. Kudus 1–1
S. Berghuis
Half-time 1–1
59′
🟨 Edson Álvarez
Joël Matip 🟨
62′
Roberto Firmino 🔁
↦ H. Elliott
66′
D. Núñez 🔁
↦ Diogo Jota
66′
68′
🔁 J. Sánchez
↦ D. Rensch
80′
🔁 F. Grillitsch
↦ K. Taylor
86′
🔁 B. Brobbey
↦ M. Kudus
2–1 J. Matip ⚽
K. Tsimikas
89′
91′
🟨 Steven Berghuis
J. Milner 🔁
↦ L. Díaz
92′
Stefan Bajčetić 🔁
↦ Thiago Alcântara
94′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Liverpool

4-3-3
1 Alisson G
66 T. Alexander-Arnold D
32 J. Matip D
4 V. van Dijk D
21 K. Tsimikas D
19 H. Elliott M
3 Fabinho M
6 Thiago Alcântara M
11 Mohamed Salah F
20 Diogo Jota F
23 L. Díaz F
Bench (10)
9 Roberto Firmino
27 D. Núñez
7 J. Milner
43 Stefan Bajčetić
28 Fábio Carvalho
29 Arthur
2 J. Gomez
47 N. Phillips
95 H. Davies
13 Adrián

Coach: J. Klopp

Ajax

4-2-3-1
22 R. Pasveer G
15 D. Rensch D
2 J. Timber D
3 C. Bassey D
17 D. Blind D
4 E. Álvarez M
8 K. Taylor M
10 D. Tadić M
23 S. Berghuis M
7 S. Bergwijn M
20 M. Kudus F
Bench (12)
19 J. Sánchez
21 F. Grillitsch
9 B. Brobbey
1 M. Stekelenburg
13 A. Kaplan
11 L. Ocampos
29 L. Magallán
6 D. Klaassen
18 L. Lucca
25 Y. Baas
16 J. Gorter
26 Y. Regeer

Coach: A. Schreuder

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Artur Soares Dias · 181 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.