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Ligue 1

Referee: S Frappart

Brest

S T T T U

3–3

Full-time

Lens

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brest Lens

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,8

4,2

Scored

1,2

2,7

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 52%

34%

69%

Points per game

1,3

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

48%

69%

Both score Ø 49%

45%

52%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

0,25 xG 2,76

36% Possession 64%

6 Shots 25

3 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

0 Corners 6

1 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brest 12. · Lens 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	29	21	3	5	+40	+38.8	66
2	Lens	29	20	2	7	+28	+20.1	62
3	Lille	30	16	6	8	+15	+15.4	54
4	Lyon	30	16	6	8	+15	+3.6	54
5	Rennes	30	15	8	7	+11	+4.2	53
6	Marseille	30	16	4	10	+18	+14.5	52
7	Monaco	30	15	5	10	+7	+9.1	50
8	Strasbourg	29	12	7	10	+9	+9.3	43
9	Lorient	30	10	11	9	-4	-1.9	41
10	Paris FC	30	9	11	10	-6	-12.3	38
11	Toulouse	30	10	7	13	-1	-1.7	37
12	Brest	29	10	7	12	-6	-3.0	37
13	Angers	30	9	7	14	-14	-19.3	34
14	Le Havre	30	6	12	12	-13	-11.8	30
15	Nice	30	7	8	15	-22	-15.8	29
16	Auxerre	30	5	10	15	-14	-9.3	25
17	Nantes	30	4	8	18	-24	-15.1	20
18	Metz	30	3	6	21	-39	-24.9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	15	13	0	2	+23	+20.3	39
2	Paris SG	15	12	1	2	+28	+22.1	37
3	Marseille	15	10	3	2	+19	+12.4	33
4	Monaco	16	10	2	4	+11	+9.8	32
5	Lyon	14	10	1	3	+13	+7.3	31
6	Lorient	15	8	6	1	+9	+4.7	30
7	Rennes	15	8	4	3	+11	+7.3	28
8	Lille	15	8	4	3	+9	+11.9	28
9	Strasbourg	15	8	3	4	+11	+11.9	27
10	Brest	14	7	3	4	+6	+7.2	24
11	Le Havre	15	5	7	3	+3	+0.8	22
12	Angers	15	6	4	5	+1	-5.2	22
13	Toulouse	15	5	5	5	+0	+5.2	20
14	Paris FC	14	5	4	5	-3	-3.7	19
15	Nice	15	4	6	5	-8	-4.0	18
16	Auxerre	15	4	4	7	-2	+0.5	16
17	Metz	15	2	4	9	-12	-2.0	10
18	Nantes	15	2	3	10	-12	-6.8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	9	2	3	+12	+16.7	29
2	Lille	15	8	2	5	+6	+3.5	26
3	Rennes	15	7	4	4	+0	-3.1	25
4	Lens	14	7	2	5	+5	-0.2	23
5	Lyon	16	6	5	5	+2	-3.6	23
6	Marseille	15	6	1	8	-1	+2.1	19
7	Paris FC	16	4	7	5	-3	-8.6	19
8	Monaco	14	5	3	6	-4	-0.7	18
9	Toulouse	15	5	2	8	-1	-6.9	17
10	Strasbourg	14	4	4	6	-2	-2.6	16
11	Brest	15	3	4	8	-12	-10.2	13
12	Angers	15	3	3	9	-15	-14.1	12
13	Nantes	15	2	5	8	-12	-8.2	11
14	Lorient	15	2	5	8	-13	-6.5	11
15	Nice	15	3	2	10	-14	-11.8	11
16	Auxerre	15	1	6	8	-12	-9.8	9
17	Le Havre	15	1	5	9	-16	-12.7	8
18	Metz	15	1	2	12	-27	-22.9	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.