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Ligue 1

Referee: R Buquet

Brest

T S U T S

1–4

Full-time

Marseille

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brest Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 41%

33%

48%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

44%

33%

Both score Ø 56%

63%

48%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,4

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

47% Possession 53%

8 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 3

2 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brest 13. · Marseille 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	28	20	5	3	+35	65
2	Nice	28	15	6	7	+17	51
3	Rennes	28	15	4	9	+30	49
4	Strasbourg	28	13	8	7	+18	47
5	Marseille	27	13	8	6	+14	47
6	Lille	28	11	10	7	+2	43
7	Nantes	28	12	6	10	+6	42
8	Lyon	28	11	9	8	+3	42
9	Monaco	28	11	8	9	+10	41
10	Lens	28	11	8	9	+4	41
11	Montpellier	28	11	5	12	+1	38
12	Reims	28	8	11	9	+1	35
13	Brest	27	9	8	10	-3	35
14	Angers	28	7	8	13	-10	29
15	Troyes	28	7	7	14	-15	28
16	Clermont	28	7	7	14	-21	28
17	Lorient	28	6	9	13	-19	27
18	St Etienne	28	6	8	14	-22	26
19	Metz	28	4	11	13	-21	23
20	Bordeaux	28	4	10	14	-30	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	13	1	0	+27	40
2	Rennes	14	10	1	3	+24	31
3	Nantes	14	9	2	3	+11	29
4	Strasbourg	14	8	3	3	+15	27
5	Lyon	15	7	5	3	+7	26
6	Monaco	14	7	4	3	+13	25
7	Montpellier	15	7	3	5	+6	24
8	Nice	14	7	3	4	+4	24
9	Lille	14	6	6	2	+3	24
10	Lens	14	6	5	3	+8	23
11	Marseille	14	5	5	4	+6	20
12	Brest	13	5	3	5	+2	18
13	Reims	13	4	5	4	+5	17
14	Angers	14	5	1	8	-3	16
15	Lorient	13	4	4	5	-3	16
16	Troyes	14	3	6	5	-1	15
17	Clermont	14	3	5	6	-5	14
18	St Etienne	14	3	5	6	-9	14
19	Bordeaux	14	2	5	7	-7	11
20	Metz	14	1	6	7	-10	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	14	8	3	3	+13	27
2	Marseille	13	8	3	2	+8	27
3	Paris SG	14	7	4	3	+8	25
4	Strasbourg	14	5	5	4	+3	20
5	Lille	14	5	4	5	-1	19
6	Rennes	14	5	3	6	+6	18
7	Lens	14	5	3	6	-4	18
8	Reims	15	4	6	5	-4	18
9	Brest	14	4	5	5	-5	17
10	Monaco	14	4	4	6	-3	16
11	Lyon	13	4	4	5	-4	16
12	Montpellier	13	4	2	7	-5	14
13	Metz	14	3	5	6	-11	14
14	Clermont	14	4	2	8	-16	14
15	Nantes	14	3	4	7	-5	13
16	Angers	14	2	7	5	-7	13
17	Troyes	14	4	1	9	-14	13
18	St Etienne	14	3	3	8	-13	12
19	Lorient	15	2	5	8	-16	11
20	Bordeaux	14	2	5	7	-23	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.