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Europa League
Referee: Jesús Gil
Atalanta
S S S U S
3–0
Full-time
Marseille
S U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Marseille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
2,7
2,8
Scored
1,8
1,5
Conceded
0,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 11/13 matches
Win Ø 51%
55%
46%
Points per game
2,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
45%
69%
Both score Ø 62%
55%
69%
Average goals
2,5
3,5
Scored
1,7
2,1
Conceded
0,7
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,94 xG 0,36
46% Possession 54%
16 Shots 6
8 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
3 Corners 0
2 Offside 1
17 Free kicks against 6
2 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

2. May -24 Marseille – Atalanta 1–1

Match report

Atalanta Marseille
1–0 A. Lookman ⚽
C. De Ketelaere
30′
Half-time 1–0
Éderson 🟨
47′
2–0 M. Ruggeri ⚽
A. Lookman
52′
G. Scalvini 🔁
↦ Éderson
56′
Aleksey Miranchuk 🔁
↦ G. Scamacca
56′
59′
🔁 I. Sarr
↦ I. Ndiaye
59′
🔁 A. Ounahi
↦ C. Mbemba
M. Pašalić 🔁
↦ C. De Ketelaere
61′
Marten de Roon 🟨
63′
72′
🔁 F. Moumbagna
↦ J. Clauss
72′
🔁 Luis Henrique
↦ Q. Merlin
H. Hateboer 🔁
↦ D. Zappacosta
76′
E. Touré 🔁
↦ A. Lookman
77′
84′
🔁 J. Correa
↦ A. Harit
3–0 E. Touré ⚽
94′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Atalanta

3-4-2-1
1 J. Musso G
19 B. Djimsiti D
4 I. Hien D
15 M. de Roon D
77 D. Zappacosta M
13 Éderson M
7 T. Koopmeiners M
22 M. Ruggeri M
17 C. De Ketelaere F
11 A. Lookman F
90 G. Scamacca F
Bench (12)
42 G. Scalvini
59 Aleksey Miranchuk
8 M. Pašalić
33 H. Hateboer
10 E. Touré
53 P. Comi
29 M. Carnesecchi
43 G. Bonfanti
20 M. Bakker
31 F. Rossi
45 M. Palestra
25 M. Adopo

Coach: G. Gasperini

Marseille

3-4-2-1
16 Pau López G
99 C. Mbemba D
4 S. Gigot D
5 L. Balerdi D
7 J. Clauss M
19 G. Kondogbia M
27 J. Veretout M
3 Q. Merlin M
29 I. Ndiaye F
11 A. Harit F
10 P. Aubameyang F
Bench (12)
23 I. Sarr
8 A. Ounahi
14 F. Moumbagna
44 Luis Henrique
20 J. Correa
62 A. Murillo
37 E. Soglo
18 B. Meïté
1 S. Ngapandouetnbu
36 Rubén Blanco
49 R. Daou
46 G. Lafont

Coach: J. Gasset

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Jesús Gil · 103 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.