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Ligue 1

Referee: J Pignard

Toulouse

S U S T S

0–3

Full-time

Brest

T T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Brest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,8

4,5

Scored

1,7

2,2

Conceded

1,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 41%

33%

48%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

61%

36%

Both score Ø 53%

64%

42%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,88 xG 1,63

52% Possession 48%

8 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 2

4 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 11. · Brest 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	33	21	10	2	+46	+27.7	73
2	Monaco	33	19	7	7	+22	+12.1	64
3	Lille	33	16	10	7	+18	+12.6	58
4	Brest	33	16	10	7	+16	+8.4	58
5	Nice	33	15	9	9	+11	+15.0	54
6	Lens	33	14	8	11	+8	+2.4	50
7	Lyon	33	15	5	13	-7	-4.3	50
8	Marseille	33	12	11	10	+10	+20.3	47
9	Rennes	33	12	10	11	+8	+12.3	46
10	Reims	33	12	8	13	-6	-1.4	44
11	Toulouse	33	11	10	12	-1	-6.9	43
12	Montpellier	33	10	11	12	-5	-0.3	41
13	Strasbourg	33	10	9	14	-11	-2.7	39
14	Nantes	33	9	6	18	-21	-15.1	33
15	Le Havre	33	7	11	15	-10	-13.6	32
16	Metz	33	8	5	20	-21	-20.7	29
17	Lorient	33	6	8	19	-28	-21.0	26
18	Clermont	33	5	10	18	-29	-24.8	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lille	16	11	3	2	+20	+16.2	36
2	Marseille	17	10	6	1	+18	+17.5	36
3	Paris SG	17	9	6	2	+20	+20.4	33
4	Brest	17	8	7	2	+11	+12.7	31
5	Nice	17	9	4	4	+10	+11.6	31
6	Monaco	16	9	3	4	+12	+11.2	30
7	Lens	16	9	3	4	+9	+7.8	30
8	Rennes	17	7	4	6	+8	+13.7	25
9	Reims	16	7	3	6	+0	+3.7	24
10	Strasbourg	17	7	3	7	-1	+2.4	24
11	Lyon	16	6	4	6	-5	+1.6	22
12	Le Havre	16	6	2	8	+0	+3.0	20
13	Montpellier	17	3	9	5	-3	+6.4	18
14	Toulouse	16	3	7	6	-1	+4.9	16
15	Clermont	17	3	5	9	-13	-5.4	14
16	Lorient	16	3	4	9	-9	-6.3	13
17	Metz	16	3	3	10	-8	-3.8	12
18	Nantes	17	3	3	11	-13	-8.5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	12	4	0	+26	+7.3	40
2	Monaco	17	10	4	3	+10	+0.9	34
3	Lyon	17	9	1	7	-2	-5.9	28
4	Brest	16	8	3	5	+5	-4.4	27
5	Toulouse	17	8	3	6	+0	-11.7	27
6	Nice	16	6	5	5	+1	+3.5	23
7	Montpellier	16	7	2	7	-2	-6.7	23
8	Lille	17	5	7	5	-2	-3.6	22
9	Rennes	16	5	6	5	+0	-1.4	21
10	Nantes	16	6	3	7	-8	-6.6	21
11	Lens	17	5	5	7	-1	-5.4	20
12	Reims	17	5	5	7	-6	-5.2	20
13	Metz	17	5	2	10	-13	-16.9	17
14	Strasbourg	16	3	6	7	-10	-5.0	15
15	Lorient	17	3	4	10	-19	-14.7	13
16	Le Havre	17	1	9	7	-10	-16.6	12
17	Marseille	16	2	5	9	-8	+2.7	11
18	Clermont	16	2	5	9	-16	-19.4	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.