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Premier League

Referee: J Brooks

Newcastle

S U T T S

1–0

Full-time

Arsenal

S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,5

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 45%

33%

56%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

44%

Both score Ø 62%

67%

56%

Average goals

2,1

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,9

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,53 xG 1,05

36% Possession 64%

9 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 6

16 Free kicks against 18

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 12. · Arsenal 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	9	7	2	0	+11	+9.5	23
2	Liverpool	9	7	1	1	+12	+9.9	22
3	Arsenal	9	5	3	1	+7	+4.6	18
4	Aston Villa	9	5	3	1	+5	+4.5	18
5	Chelsea	9	5	2	2	+8	+5.6	17
6	Brighton	9	4	4	1	+4	-1.3	16
7	Nott'm Forest	9	4	4	1	+4	+2.3	16
8	Tottenham	9	4	1	4	+8	+8.0	13
9	Brentford	9	4	1	4	+0	+0.3	13
10	Fulham	9	3	3	3	+0	+3.3	12
11	Bournemouth	9	3	3	3	+0	+2.6	12
12	Newcastle	9	3	3	3	-1	+1.2	12
13	West Ham	9	3	2	4	-3	-0.6	11
14	Man United	9	3	2	4	-3	-0.6	11
15	Leicester	9	2	3	4	-4	-9.7	9
16	Everton	9	2	3	4	-6	-4.9	9
17	Crystal Palace	9	1	3	5	-5	-3.1	6
18	Ipswich	9	0	4	5	-11	-13.9	4
19	Wolves	9	0	2	7	-13	-8.0	2
20	Southampton	9	0	1	8	-13	-9.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	5	4	1	0	+6	+7.0	13
2	Man City	5	4	1	0	+6	+7.5	13
3	Arsenal	5	3	2	0	+6	+7.6	11
4	Tottenham	4	3	0	1	+8	+5.3	9
5	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+5	+4.7	9
6	Brighton	5	2	3	0	+2	+1.9	9
7	Chelsea	5	2	2	1	+1	+6.5	8
8	Aston Villa	5	2	2	1	+1	+4.3	8
9	Bournemouth	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.5	7
10	Fulham	4	2	1	1	+1	+2.8	7
11	Newcastle	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.6	7
12	West Ham	5	2	0	3	-2	+0.6	6
13	Man United	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.6	6
14	Nott'm Forest	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.6	5
15	Leicester	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.0	5
16	Crystal Palace	5	1	2	2	-2	-0.1	5
17	Everton	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.1	5
18	Ipswich	4	0	2	2	-4	-2.8	2
19	Southampton	4	0	1	3	-5	-4.1	1
20	Wolves	4	0	0	4	-7	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+7	+5.2	13
2	Nott'm Forest	5	3	2	0	+4	+1.6	11
3	Man City	4	3	1	0	+5	+2.0	10
4	Aston Villa	4	3	1	0	+4	+0.2	10
5	Chelsea	4	3	0	1	+7	-0.9	9
6	Brighton	4	2	1	1	+2	-3.2	7
7	Arsenal	4	2	1	1	+1	-3.0	7
8	Man United	5	1	2	2	+1	+1.0	5
9	Fulham	5	1	2	2	-1	+0.5	5
10	West Ham	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.3	5
11	Newcastle	5	1	2	2	-2	+0.5	5
12	Bournemouth	5	1	2	2	-3	-0.9	5
13	Tottenham	5	1	1	3	+0	+2.7	4
14	Leicester	4	1	1	2	-2	-5.7	4
15	Everton	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.7	4
16	Wolves	5	0	2	3	-6	-5.4	2
17	Ipswich	5	0	2	3	-7	-11.1	2
18	Crystal Palace	4	0	1	3	-3	-3.0	1
19	Brentford	4	0	0	4	-6	-6.7	0
20	Southampton	5	0	0	5	-8	-5.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.