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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Arsenal

S S S T S

2–2

Full-time

Liverpool

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 92%

83%

100%

Points per game

2,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

2,5

2,2

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 76%

63%

88%

Points per game

2,1

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

38%

50%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

2,9

2,3

Scored

1,9

Conceded

1,0

0,4

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

0,92 xG 0,81

45% Possession 55%

9 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 5. · Liverpool 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	9	7	2	0	+11	+9.5	23
2	Liverpool	8	7	0	1	+12	+10.0	21
3	Aston Villa	9	5	3	1	+5	+4.5	18
4	Chelsea	9	5	2	2	+8	+5.6	17
5	Arsenal	8	5	2	1	+7	+4.5	17
6	Brighton	9	4	4	1	+4	-1.3	16
7	Nott'm Forest	9	4	4	1	+4	+2.3	16
8	Tottenham	9	4	1	4	+8	+8.0	13
9	Brentford	9	4	1	4	+0	+0.3	13
10	Fulham	9	3	3	3	+0	+3.3	12
11	Bournemouth	9	3	3	3	+0	+2.6	12
12	Newcastle	9	3	3	3	-1	+1.2	12
13	West Ham	9	3	2	4	-3	-0.6	11
14	Man United	9	3	2	4	-3	-0.6	11
15	Leicester	9	2	3	4	-4	-9.7	9
16	Everton	9	2	3	4	-6	-4.9	9
17	Crystal Palace	9	1	3	5	-5	-3.1	6
18	Ipswich	9	0	4	5	-11	-13.9	4
19	Wolves	9	0	2	7	-13	-8.0	2
20	Southampton	9	0	1	8	-13	-9.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	5	4	1	0	+6	+7.0	13
2	Man City	5	4	1	0	+6	+7.5	13
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+6	+7.5	10
4	Tottenham	4	3	0	1	+8	+5.3	9
5	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+5	+4.7	9
6	Brighton	5	2	3	0	+2	+1.9	9
7	Chelsea	5	2	2	1	+1	+6.5	8
8	Aston Villa	5	2	2	1	+1	+4.3	8
9	Bournemouth	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.5	7
10	Fulham	4	2	1	1	+1	+2.8	7
11	Newcastle	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.6	7
12	West Ham	5	2	0	3	-2	+0.6	6
13	Man United	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.6	6
14	Nott'm Forest	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.6	5
15	Leicester	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.0	5
16	Crystal Palace	5	1	2	2	-2	-0.1	5
17	Everton	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.1	5
18	Ipswich	4	0	2	2	-4	-2.8	2
19	Southampton	4	0	1	3	-5	-4.1	1
20	Wolves	4	0	0	4	-7	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+7	+5.3	12
2	Nott'm Forest	5	3	2	0	+4	+1.6	11
3	Man City	4	3	1	0	+5	+2.0	10
4	Aston Villa	4	3	1	0	+4	+0.2	10
5	Chelsea	4	3	0	1	+7	-0.9	9
6	Brighton	4	2	1	1	+2	-3.2	7
7	Arsenal	4	2	1	1	+1	-3.0	7
8	Man United	5	1	2	2	+1	+1.0	5
9	Fulham	5	1	2	2	-1	+0.5	5
10	West Ham	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.3	5
11	Newcastle	5	1	2	2	-2	+0.5	5
12	Bournemouth	5	1	2	2	-3	-0.9	5
13	Tottenham	5	1	1	3	+0	+2.7	4
14	Leicester	4	1	1	2	-2	-5.7	4
15	Everton	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.7	4
16	Wolves	5	0	2	3	-6	-5.4	2
17	Ipswich	5	0	2	3	-7	-11.1	2
18	Crystal Palace	4	0	1	3	-3	-3.0	1
19	Brentford	4	0	0	4	-6	-6.7	0
20	Southampton	5	0	0	5	-8	-5.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.