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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Chelsea

S S U T S

2–1

Full-time

Newcastle

T U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,5

1,8

Scored

3,2

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 44%

50%

38%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

50%

38%

Both score Ø 63%

63%

Average goals

3,4

2,0

Scored

2,1

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,61 xG 1,81

50% Possession 50%

17 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 16

6 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 7. · Newcastle 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	9	7	2	0	+11	+9.5	23
2	Liverpool	8	7	0	1	+12	+10.0	21
3	Aston Villa	9	5	3	1	+5	+4.5	18
4	Arsenal	8	5	2	1	+7	+4.5	17
5	Brighton	9	4	4	1	+4	-1.3	16
6	Nott'm Forest	9	4	4	1	+4	+2.3	16
7	Chelsea	8	4	2	2	+7	+5.8	14
8	Tottenham	8	4	1	3	+9	+8.0	13
9	Brentford	9	4	1	4	+0	+0.3	13
10	Fulham	9	3	3	3	+0	+3.3	12
11	Bournemouth	9	3	3	3	+0	+2.6	12
12	Newcastle	8	3	3	2	+0	+1.0	12
13	Man United	8	3	2	3	-2	+0.0	11
14	Leicester	9	2	3	4	-4	-9.7	9
15	Everton	9	2	3	4	-6	-4.9	9
16	West Ham	8	2	2	4	-4	-1.3	8
17	Ipswich	9	0	4	5	-11	-13.9	4
18	Crystal Palace	8	0	3	5	-6	-3.1	3
19	Wolves	9	0	2	7	-13	-8.0	2
20	Southampton	9	0	1	8	-13	-9.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	5	4	1	0	+6	+7.0	13
2	Man City	5	4	1	0	+6	+7.5	13
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+6	+7.5	10
4	Tottenham	4	3	0	1	+8	+5.3	9
5	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+5	+4.7	9
6	Brighton	5	2	3	0	+2	+1.9	9
7	Aston Villa	5	2	2	1	+1	+4.3	8
8	Bournemouth	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.5	7
9	Fulham	4	2	1	1	+1	+2.8	7
10	Newcastle	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.6	7
11	Man United	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.6	6
12	Chelsea	4	1	2	1	+0	+6.7	5
13	Nott'm Forest	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.6	5
14	Leicester	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.0	5
15	Everton	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.1	5
16	West Ham	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.0	3
17	Crystal Palace	4	0	2	2	-3	-0.2	2
18	Ipswich	4	0	2	2	-4	-2.8	2
19	Southampton	4	0	1	3	-5	-4.1	1
20	Wolves	4	0	0	4	-7	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+7	+5.3	12
2	Nott'm Forest	5	3	2	0	+4	+1.6	11
3	Man City	4	3	1	0	+5	+2.0	10
4	Aston Villa	4	3	1	0	+4	+0.2	10
5	Chelsea	4	3	0	1	+7	-0.9	9
6	Brighton	4	2	1	1	+2	-3.2	7
7	Arsenal	4	2	1	1	+1	-3.0	7
8	Man United	4	1	2	1	+2	+1.6	5
9	Fulham	5	1	2	2	-1	+0.5	5
10	West Ham	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.3	5
11	Newcastle	4	1	2	1	-1	+0.3	5
12	Bournemouth	5	1	2	2	-3	-0.9	5
13	Tottenham	4	1	1	2	+1	+2.8	4
14	Leicester	4	1	1	2	-2	-5.7	4
15	Everton	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.7	4
16	Wolves	5	0	2	3	-6	-5.4	2
17	Ipswich	5	0	2	3	-7	-11.1	2
18	Crystal Palace	4	0	1	3	-3	-3.0	1
19	Brentford	4	0	0	4	-6	-6.7	0
20	Southampton	5	0	0	5	-8	-5.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.