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Champions League
Referee: B Bastien
Arsenal
S S S S T
1–0
Full-time
Shakhtar Donetsk
T U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Shakhtar Donetsk
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,2
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
4,0
3,3
Scored
2,7
1,2
Conceded
1,3
2,2
Goal diff per game
+1,3
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
2,0
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
0%
50%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
1,0
1,5
Scored
1,0
0,0
Conceded
0,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,98 xG 0,67
56% Possession 44%
13 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 3
0 Offside 1
7 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Arsenal Shakhtar Donetsk
0–1 D. Riznyk ⚽
own goal
29′
Ben White 🟨
34′
Half-time 0–1
Mikel Merino 🔁
↦ B. White
46′
64′
🔁 Pedrinho
↦ O. Zubkov
64′
🔁 Kevin
↦ D. Sikan
R. Sterling 🔁
↦ Gabriel Jesus
68′
M. Lewis-Skelly 🔁
↦ R. Calafiori
72′
Mikel Merino ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
75′
Leandro Trossard ❌
penalty missed
77′
Gabriel Martinelli 🟨
84′
84′
🔁 L. Traoré
↦ Eguinaldo
87′
🔁 Marlon Gomes
↦ A. Bondarenko
Jorginho 🔁
↦ L. Trossard
88′
96′
🟨 Pedrinho
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Arsenal

4-4-2
22 David Raya G
4 B. White D
2 W. Saliba D
6 Gabriel Magalhães D
33 R. Calafiori D
9 Gabriel Jesus M
5 T. Partey M
41 D. Rice M
11 Gabriel Martinelli M
29 K. Havertz F
19 L. Trossard F
Bench (12)
23 Mikel Merino
30 R. Sterling
49 M. Lewis-Skelly
20 Jorginho
17 O. Zinchenko
15 J. Kiwior
36 T. Setford
50 Z. Monlouis
37 N. Butler-Oyedeji
61 J. Robinson
53 E. Nwaneri
32 Neto

Coach: Mikel Arteta

Shakhtar Donetsk

4-2-3-1
31 D. Riznyk G
26 Y. Konoplia D
5 V. Bondar D
22 M. Matviienko D
13 Pedro Henrique D
21 A. Bondarenko M
8 D. Kryskiv M
11 O. Zubkov M
10 H. Sudakov M
7 Eguinaldo M
14 D. Sikan F
Bench (12)
38 Pedrinho
37 Kevin
2 L. Traoré
30 Marlon Gomes
39 Newerton
4 B. Franjić
6 T. Stepanenko
18 A. Ghram
72 K. Fesiun
17 Vinícius Tobias
9 M. Shved
16 I. Azarovi

Coach: M. Pusic

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

B Bastien · 180 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.