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Premier League

Referee: T Harrington

Arsenal

U U S S S

3–1

Full-time

Southampton

T T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,2

3,8

Scored

2,3

1,5

Conceded

0,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,3

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

2,0

0,5

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,83 xG 0,65

59% Possession 41%

29 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 2

10 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

13 Corners 1

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 3. · Southampton 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	6	0	1	+11	+9.1	18
2	Man City	6	4	2	0	+8	+7.1	14
3	Arsenal	6	4	2	0	+7	+3.4	14
4	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+8	+5.2	13
5	Aston Villa	6	4	1	1	+3	+3.2	13
6	Fulham	6	3	2	1	+3	+1.7	11
7	Newcastle	6	3	2	1	+1	-1.3	11
8	Tottenham	6	3	1	2	+7	+7.3	10
9	Brighton	6	2	3	1	+2	-0.8	9
10	Nott'm Forest	6	2	3	1	+1	+2.1	9
11	Bournemouth	6	2	2	2	-1	+1.5	8
12	Brentford	6	2	1	3	-2	-5.2	7
13	Man United	6	2	1	3	-3	-0.5	7
14	West Ham	6	1	2	3	-4	-3.3	5
15	Ipswich	6	0	4	2	-5	-7.5	4
16	Everton	6	1	1	4	-8	-3.5	4
17	Leicester	6	0	3	3	-4	-8.5	3
18	Crystal Palace	7	0	3	4	-5	-2.4	3
19	Southampton	6	0	1	5	-9	-3.5	1
20	Wolves	6	0	1	5	-10	-4.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	3	2	1	0	+4	+5.8	7
2	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+4	+5.3	7
3	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.7	7
4	Brentford	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.0	7
5	Newcastle	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.3	7
6	Tottenham	3	2	0	1	+5	+4.1	6
7	Liverpool	3	2	0	1	+4	+3.8	6
8	Aston Villa	3	2	0	1	+1	+2.8	6
9	Brighton	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.6	5
10	Bournemouth	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.3	4
11	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+0	+5.1	4
12	Everton	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.3	3
13	Man United	3	1	0	2	-5	-2.1	3
14	Leicester	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.7	2
15	Nott'm Forest	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.2	2
16	Ipswich	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.3	2
17	Crystal Palace	4	0	2	2	-3	-0.2	2
18	Southampton	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.1	1
19	Wolves	3	0	0	3	-6	-1.9	0
20	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+7	+5.3	12
2	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+8	+0.1	9
3	Man City	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.4	7
4	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+3	-1.9	7
5	Aston Villa	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.3	7
6	Nott'm Forest	3	2	1	0	+2	+2.2	7
7	West Ham	3	1	2	0	+2	-0.1	5
8	Tottenham	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.2	4
9	Man United	3	1	1	1	+2	+1.6	4
10	Brighton	3	1	1	1	+1	-2.3	4
11	Fulham	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.0	4
12	Newcastle	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.0	4
13	Bournemouth	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.8	4
14	Ipswich	3	0	2	1	-3	-5.2	2
15	Crystal Palace	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.2	1
16	Leicester	3	0	1	2	-3	-6.8	1
17	Wolves	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.3	1
18	Everton	3	0	1	2	-5	-2.2	1
19	Brentford	3	0	0	3	-5	-6.2	0
20	Southampton	3	0	0	3	-5	-0.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.