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Serie A
Referee: E Feliciani
Atalanta
S T S T S
2–0
Full-time
Cagliari
S U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Cagliari
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,7
1,5
Scored
2,5
0,7
Conceded
1,2
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,3
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Serie A · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
1,5
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
75%
25%
Both score Ø 38%
50%
25%
Average goals
3,3
1,3
Scored
2,0
0,3
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,73 xG 0,75
57% Possession 43%
10 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 3
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
7 Corners 7
5 Offside 1
6 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Atalanta 10. · Cagliari 19.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Inter 5 5 0 0 +13 +8.5 15
2 Milan 5 4 0 1 +3 +2.1 12
3 Lecce 5 3 2 0 +4 -1.2 11
4 Juventus 5 3 1 1 +5 +4.9 10
5 Frosinone 5 2 2 1 +1 -0.2 8
6 Napoli 4 2 1 1 +3 +4.4 7
7 Torino 4 2 1 1 +1 -0.6 7
8 Fiorentina 4 2 1 1 +0 -1.1 7
9 Verona 5 2 1 2 -1 -2.6 7
10 Atalanta 4 2 0 2 +3 +2.3 6
11 Sassuolo 5 2 0 3 -2 -4.3 6
12 Bologna 4 1 2 1 -1 +1.9 5
13 Monza 5 1 2 2 -3 -0.3 5
14 Roma 4 1 1 2 +5 +3.8 4
15 Lazio 5 1 1 3 -3 -1.6 4
16 Genoa 5 1 1 3 -4 -2.3 4
17 Udinese 4 0 3 1 -3 -1.6 3
18 Salernitana 5 0 3 2 -5 -3.5 3
19 Cagliari 4 0 2 2 -3 -1.8 2
20 Empoli 5 0 0 5 -13 -6.7 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Atalanta Cagliari
32′
🟨 Alessandro Deiola
1–0 A. Lookman
C. De Ketelaere
33′
42′
🟨 Zito Luvumbo
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 G. Zappa
↦ A. Deiola
Berat Djimsiti 🟨
54′
L. Muriel 🔁
↦ Éderson
60′
64′
🔁 T. Augello
↦ P. Hatzidiakos
65′
🔁 N. Viola
↦ I. Sulemana
E. Holm 🔁
↦ C. De Ketelaere
67′
M. Pašalić 🔁
↦ A. Lookman
67′
2–0 M. Pašalić
L. Muriel
76′
78′
🔁 A. Petagna
↦ E. Shomurodov
78′
🔁 G. Oristanio
↦ Paulo Azzi
R. Tolói 🔁
↦ M. Ruggeri
80′
M. Adopo 🔁
↦ D. Zappacosta
80′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Atalanta

3-4-3
1 J. Musso G
42 G. Scalvini D
19 B. Djimsiti D
23 S. Kolašinac D
77 D. Zappacosta M
13 Éderson M
15 M. de Roon M
22 M. Ruggeri M
7 T. Koopmeiners F
17 C. De Ketelaere F
11 A. Lookman F
Bench (12)
9 L. Muriel
3 E. Holm
8 M. Pašalić
2 R. Tolói
25 M. Adopo
6 J. Palomino
29 M. Carnesecchi
30 A. Cortinovis
33 H. Hateboer
59 A. Miranchuk
31 F. Rossi
21 N. Zortea

Coach: G. Gasperini

Cagliari

3-5-2
1 B. Radunović G
17 P. Hatzidiakos D
4 A. Dossena D
33 A. Obert D
8 N. Nández M
25 I. Sulemana M
29 A. Makoumbou M
14 A. Deiola M
37 Paulo Azzi M
61 E. Shomurodov F
77 Zito Luvumbo F
Bench (9)
28 G. Zappa
27 T. Augello
10 N. Viola
32 A. Petagna
19 G. Oristanio
3 E. Goldaniga
18 S. Aresti
22 S. Scuffet
16 M. Prati

Coach: C. Ranieri

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,39
U
4,94
B
7,85
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,68
U2,5 ✓
2,22
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

E Feliciani · 60 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.