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Premier League

Referee: J Gillett

Chelsea

T S S T U

0–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

S S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

4,0

Scored

1,2

2,7

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 40%

20%

60%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

40%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

40%

60%

Average goals

2,0

4,2

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,33 xG 1,07

53% Possession 47%

10 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 11

10 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 14. · Aston Villa 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	6	6	0	0	+13	+9.3	18
2	Tottenham	5	4	1	0	+8	+2.5	13
3	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+8	+4.3	13
4	Arsenal	5	4	1	0	+5	+5.3	13
5	Brighton	5	4	0	1	+8	+1.7	12
6	West Ham	5	3	1	1	+3	-2.4	10
7	Aston Villa	5	3	0	2	+1	+2.9	9
8	Man United	6	3	0	3	-3	-0.4	9
9	Crystal Palace	6	2	2	2	-1	-1.2	8
10	Fulham	6	2	2	2	-5	-8.0	8
11	Nott'm Forest	6	2	1	3	-2	-2.1	7
12	Newcastle	5	2	0	3	+1	+2.8	6
13	Brentford	6	1	3	2	+0	+3.6	6
14	Chelsea	5	1	2	2	+0	+4.9	5
15	Everton	6	1	1	4	-5	+0.7	4
16	Wolves	6	1	1	4	-6	-4.6	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	-4	-4.5	3
18	Sheffield United	5	0	1	4	-4	-8.1	1
19	Luton	5	0	1	4	-8	-2.2	1
20	Burnley	5	0	1	4	-9	-4.7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+7	+1.9	9
2	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.6	7
3	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.4	6
4	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.6	6
5	Newcastle	3	2	0	1	+4	+3.7	6
6	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.9	6
7	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.1	6
8	Man United	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.7	6
9	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.4	4
10	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.0	4
11	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.4	4
12	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+0	-3.4	3
13	Brentford	4	0	3	1	-2	+1.1	3
14	Fulham	2	1	0	1	-2	-3.6	3
15	Bournemouth	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.9	2
16	Luton	2	0	1	1	-1	+2.0	1
17	Sheffield United	3	0	1	2	-2	-5.7	1
18	Everton	3	0	0	3	-3	+0.8	0
19	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.0	0
20	Burnley	4	0	0	4	-9	-4.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+6	+7.4	9
2	Tottenham	3	2	1	0	+5	+1.4	7
3	West Ham	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.0	7
4	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.7	7
5	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.8	6
6	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.7	6
7	Fulham	4	1	2	1	-3	-4.4	5
8	Wolves	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.6	4
9	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.8	4
10	Everton	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.1	4
11	Brentford	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.5	3
12	Nott'm Forest	4	1	0	3	-3	-3.1	3
13	Man United	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.1	3
14	Aston Villa	3	1	0	2	-5	-1.5	3
15	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
16	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.6	1
17	Chelsea	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.5	1
18	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.3	0
19	Newcastle	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.9	0
20	Luton	3	0	0	3	-7	-4.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.