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Ligue 1

Referee: H Ben El Hadj

Lens

U T T T U

2–1

Full-time

Toulouse

U T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lens Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 10%

20%

Points per game

0,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,4

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,33 xG 0,37

61% Possession 39%

27 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 2

12 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lens 18. · Toulouse 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brest	6	4	1	1	+2	+3.0	13
2	Nice	6	3	3	0	+4	+3.9	12
3	Monaco	6	3	2	1	+7	+5.7	11
4	Strasbourg	6	3	1	2	-1	+0.7	10
5	Marseille	5	2	3	0	+3	+5.6	9
6	Paris SG	5	2	2	1	+4	+5.0	8
7	Nantes	6	2	2	2	+0	-5.3	8
8	Lille	5	2	2	1	+0	+2.5	8
9	Metz	6	2	2	2	-3	-5.5	8
10	Rennes	5	1	4	0	+4	+5.5	7
11	Reims	5	2	1	2	+2	+2.1	7
12	Le Havre	5	1	3	1	+2	-2.6	6
13	Toulouse	5	1	3	1	-1	-5.7	6
14	Lorient	6	1	3	2	-2	-4.2	6
15	Montpellier	5	1	2	2	+0	+0.3	5
16	Lyon	6	0	2	4	-8	-7.4	2
17	Clermont	5	0	1	4	-6	-1.7	1
18	Lens	5	0	1	4	-7	-1.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Strasbourg	3	2	1	0	+3	+4.0	7
2	Marseille	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.5	7
3	Brest	3	2	1	0	+2	+4.9	7
4	Monaco	3	2	0	1	+5	+1.8	6
5	Lille	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.2	6
6	Rennes	3	1	2	0	+4	+6.2	5
7	Lorient	3	1	2	0	+3	-1.4	5
8	Nice	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.6	5
9	Nantes	4	1	2	1	+1	-3.7	5
10	Paris SG	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.8	4
11	Le Havre	2	1	0	1	+2	+1.5	3
12	Reims	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.3	3
13	Toulouse	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
14	Metz	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.3	2
15	Lens	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.3	1
16	Montpellier	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.1	1
17	Lyon	3	0	1	2	-6	-4.1	1
18	Clermont	3	0	0	3	-4	-0.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nice	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.3	7
2	Brest	3	2	0	1	+0	-2.0	6
3	Metz	3	2	0	1	-2	-5.1	6
4	Monaco	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.9	5
5	Paris SG	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.2	4
6	Montpellier	3	1	1	1	+2	+0.3	4
7	Reims	3	1	1	1	+1	-0.2	4
8	Toulouse	3	1	1	1	-1	-3.7	4
9	Le Havre	3	0	3	0	+0	-4.0	3
10	Nantes	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
11	Strasbourg	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.3	3
12	Marseille	2	0	2	0	+0	+3.1	2
13	Rennes	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.6	2
14	Lille	3	0	2	1	-3	+0.3	2
15	Clermont	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.8	1
16	Lyon	3	0	1	2	-2	-3.3	1
17	Lorient	3	0	1	2	-5	-2.8	1
18	Lens	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.