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Serie A

Referee: L Pairetto

Fiorentina

S T U S T

3–2

Full-time

Atalanta

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

4,0

Scored

1,5

2,7

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,3

2,7

Scored

2,0

Conceded

2,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,12 xG 0,70

57% Possession 43%

15 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 9. · Atalanta 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	4	4	0	0	+12	+7.1	12
2	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+7	+5.3	10
3	Milan	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.8	9
4	Lecce	4	2	2	0	+3	-1.8	8
5	Napoli	4	2	1	1	+3	+4.4	7
6	Frosinone	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.2	7
7	Atalanta	3	2	0	1	+4	+2.7	6
8	Verona	3	2	0	1	+0	-2.1	6
9	Fiorentina	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.5	4
10	Bologna	3	1	1	1	-1	+1.7	4
11	Torino	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.7	4
12	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.7	4
13	Monza	4	1	1	2	-3	-0.5	4
14	Lazio	4	1	0	3	-3	-1.4	3
15	Udinese	4	0	3	1	-3	-1.6	3
16	Sassuolo	4	1	0	3	-4	-4.7	3
17	Salernitana	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.8	2
18	Cagliari	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.8	2
19	Roma	3	0	1	2	-2	+1.6	1
20	Empoli	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	3	3	0	0	+10	+6.9	9
2	Lecce	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.6	6
3	Frosinone	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.0	6
4	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.2	4
5	Monza	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.3	4
6	Torino	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
7	Milan	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
8	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
9	Napoli	2	1	0	1	+1	+4.0	3
10	Verona	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
11	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
12	Bologna	2	1	0	1	-1	+2.0	3
13	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
14	Salernitana	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
15	Roma	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.8	1
16	Cagliari	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.6	1
17	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.5	1
18	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.0	1
19	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
20	Empoli	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.2	6
2	Milan	3	2	0	1	-1	-0.8	6
3	Napoli	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.4	4
4	Inter	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
5	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.8	3
6	Genoa	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.1	3
7	Fiorentina	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.6	3
8	Verona	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.3	3
9	Lazio	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.3	3
10	Lecce	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.4	2
11	Udinese	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.5	2
12	Bologna	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
13	Frosinone	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
14	Cagliari	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.4	1
15	Salernitana	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.5	1
16	Roma	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
17	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
18	Torino	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0
19	Sassuolo	2	0	0	2	-4	-4.9	0
20	Monza	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.