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2. Bundesliga

Referee: F Badstübner

Holstein Kiel

S T S S T

2–3

Full-time

Hertha

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Holstein Kiel Hertha

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,7

4,5

Scored

1,8

2,8

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,5

3,8

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

54% Possession 46%

16 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Holstein Kiel 5. · Hertha 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fortuna Dusseldorf	6	4	1	1	+9	13
2	St Pauli	7	3	4	0	+7	13
3	Hamburg	7	4	1	2	+6	13
4	Magdeburg	7	3	3	1	+4	12
5	Holstein Kiel	6	4	0	2	-1	12
6	Hannover	6	3	2	1	+9	11
7	Kaiserslautern	6	3	1	2	+0	10
8	Elversberg	7	3	1	3	-3	10
9	Hansa Rostock	6	3	0	3	-1	9
10	Nurnberg	7	2	3	2	-2	9
11	Karlsruhe	7	2	2	3	-1	8
12	Greuther Furth	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Wehen	7	2	2	3	-2	8
14	Paderborn	7	2	2	3	-5	8
15	Schalke 04	7	2	1	4	-3	7
16	Hertha	6	2	0	4	+1	6
17	Braunschweig	7	1	2	4	-6	5
18	Osnabruck	7	1	1	5	-10	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hamburg	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	St Pauli	4	2	2	0	+6	8
3	Greuther Furth	4	2	1	1	+4	7
4	Magdeburg	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Hertha	3	2	0	1	+7	6
6	Schalke 04	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Kaiserslautern	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Fortuna Dusseldorf	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	Holstein Kiel	3	2	0	1	+0	6
10	Hansa Rostock	4	2	0	2	+0	6
11	Karlsruhe	3	1	2	0	+2	5
12	Nurnberg	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Braunschweig	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Wehen	4	1	2	1	-1	5
15	Hannover	3	1	1	1	+6	4
16	Paderborn	3	1	1	1	+0	4
17	Osnabruck	4	1	0	3	-2	3
18	Elversberg	3	1	0	2	-5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fortuna Dusseldorf	3	2	1	0	+7	7
2	Hannover	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Elversberg	4	2	1	1	+2	7
4	Holstein Kiel	3	2	0	1	-1	6
5	Magdeburg	4	1	2	1	+1	5
6	St Pauli	3	1	2	0	+1	5
7	Hamburg	4	1	1	2	-1	4
8	Kaiserslautern	3	1	1	1	-2	4
9	Nurnberg	4	1	1	2	-3	4
10	Paderborn	4	1	1	2	-5	4
11	Wehen	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Hansa Rostock	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Karlsruhe	4	1	0	3	-3	3
14	Schalke 04	4	0	1	3	-5	1
15	Greuther Furth	3	0	1	2	-6	1
16	Osnabruck	3	0	1	2	-8	1
17	Hertha	3	0	0	3	-6	0
18	Braunschweig	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.