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La Liga

Referee: Javier Alberola Rojas

Ath Madrid

S U S T U

3–1

Full-time

Real Madrid

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

33%

100%

Points per game

1,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

2,2

1,8

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 4/5 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

1,8

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

75%

60%

Both score Ø 43%

25%

60%

Average goals

3,5

2,6

Scored

2,5

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,6

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,29 xG 1,01

36% Possession 64%

10 Shots 20

4 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 7

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 11

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 10. · Real Madrid 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	6	5	1	0	+10	+7.3	16
2	Girona	6	5	1	0	+9	+3.3	16
3	Real Madrid	5	5	0	0	+7	+4.1	15
4	Ath Bilbao	6	4	1	1	+7	+5.6	13
5	Valencia	6	3	1	2	+3	+0.5	10
6	Vallecano	6	3	1	2	-2	+0.6	10
7	Sociedad	6	2	3	1	+2	+1.2	9
8	Cadiz	6	2	2	2	-2	-3.0	8
9	Betis	6	2	2	2	-5	-2.2	8
10	Ath Madrid	4	2	1	1	+6	+2.9	7
11	Osasuna	6	2	1	3	-1	-0.7	7
12	Villarreal	6	2	1	3	-2	-1.7	7
13	Getafe	6	2	1	3	-3	-3.6	7
14	Alaves	6	2	0	4	-4	-2.7	6
15	Las Palmas	6	1	2	3	-2	-1.9	5
16	Mallorca	6	1	2	3	-3	-1.9	5
17	Sevilla	5	1	1	3	-2	-1.5	4
18	Celta	6	1	1	4	-4	-0.6	4
19	Granada	6	1	0	5	-8	-6.9	3
20	Almeria	6	0	2	4	-6	+1.3	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.0	9
2	Girona	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.1	9
3	Sociedad	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.5	8
4	Cadiz	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.5	7
5	Getafe	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.0	7
6	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+3	+4.5	6
7	Valencia	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.6	6
8	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.8	6
9	Alaves	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.2	6
10	Betis	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.6	5
11	Las Palmas	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.2	5
12	Vallecano	3	1	1	1	-5	-1.4	4
13	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
14	Villarreal	3	1	0	2	-1	-2.0	3
15	Sevilla	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.4	3
16	Granada	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.3	3
17	Mallorca	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.8	1
18	Osasuna	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.9	1
19	Almeria	4	0	1	3	-5	+2.0	1
20	Celta	3	0	0	3	-4	+0.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.3	9
2	Ath Bilbao	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.1	7
3	Girona	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.2	7
4	Barcelona	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.4	7
5	Vallecano	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.0	6
6	Osasuna	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.2	6
7	Ath Madrid	3	1	1	1	+4	+1.5	4
8	Celta	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.1	4
9	Valencia	3	1	1	1	+0	-2.0	4
10	Villarreal	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.2	4
11	Mallorca	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.1	4
12	Betis	3	1	0	2	-6	-3.9	3
13	Sevilla	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.9	1
14	Almeria	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
15	Sociedad	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
16	Cadiz	3	0	1	2	-5	-6.5	1
17	Las Palmas	3	0	0	3	-3	-1.7	0
18	Alaves	3	0	0	3	-4	-3.9	0
19	Getafe	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.6	0
20	Granada	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.