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Serie A

Referee: D Chiffi

Roma

S S S U S

2–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

U U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,8

1,8

Scored

2,7

1,3

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,8

This season — Serie A · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 40%

51%

29%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

69%

49%

Both score Ø 65%

66%

63%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

60% Possession 40%

12 Shots 4

7 Shots on target 2

9 Blocked shots 6

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 5. · Fiorentina 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	35	25	5	5	+35	80
2	Inter	36	22	10	4	+41	76
3	Atalanta	36	22	9	5	+51	75
4	Lazio	35	22	6	7	+33	72
5	Roma	35	18	7	10	+22	61
6	Milan	36	17	9	10	+11	60
7	Napoli	36	17	8	11	+11	59
8	Sassuolo	36	13	9	14	+2	48
9	Verona	35	11	13	11	+0	46
10	Parma	36	13	7	16	-1	46
11	Bologna	36	12	10	14	-9	46
12	Fiorentina	35	10	13	12	-2	43
13	Cagliari	35	10	12	13	-2	42
14	Sampdoria	35	12	5	18	-12	41
15	Udinese	35	10	9	16	-15	39
16	Torino	35	11	5	19	-21	38
17	Genoa	36	9	9	18	-24	36
18	Lecce	36	8	8	20	-33	32
19	Brescia	36	6	6	24	-42	24
20	Spal	35	5	4	26	-45	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	17	15	2	0	+29	47
2	Lazio	18	13	3	2	+27	42
3	Atalanta	18	12	2	4	+27	38
4	Inter	18	10	6	2	+21	36
5	Roma	18	9	4	5	+8	31
6	Milan	18	8	6	4	+8	30
7	Napoli	18	9	3	6	+5	30
8	Verona	17	8	5	4	+5	29
9	Torino	18	7	4	7	-6	25
10	Sassuolo	17	7	3	7	+7	24
11	Udinese	18	6	6	6	-4	24
12	Parma	18	7	2	9	+3	23
13	Cagliari	17	6	4	7	+3	22
14	Sampdoria	18	6	4	8	-2	22
15	Bologna	18	5	7	6	-4	22
16	Fiorentina	18	4	8	6	-4	20
17	Genoa	18	6	1	11	-10	19
18	Lecce	18	4	5	9	-10	17
19	Brescia	18	3	4	11	-13	13
20	Spal	17	2	3	12	-22	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	18	12	4	2	+20	40
2	Atalanta	18	10	7	1	+24	37
3	Juventus	18	10	3	5	+6	33
4	Roma	17	9	3	5	+14	30
5	Lazio	17	9	3	5	+6	30
6	Milan	18	9	3	6	+3	30
7	Napoli	18	8	5	5	+6	29
8	Bologna	18	7	3	8	-5	24
9	Sassuolo	19	6	6	7	-5	24
10	Fiorentina	17	6	5	6	+2	23
11	Parma	18	6	5	7	-4	23
12	Cagliari	18	4	8	6	-5	20
13	Sampdoria	17	6	1	10	-10	19
14	Verona	18	3	8	7	-5	17
15	Genoa	18	3	8	7	-14	17
16	Udinese	17	4	3	10	-11	15
17	Lecce	18	4	3	11	-23	15
18	Torino	17	4	1	12	-15	13
19	Brescia	18	3	2	13	-29	11
20	Spal	18	3	1	14	-23	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.