Serie A
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Roma
Inter
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Juventus
|
33 | 24 | 5 | 4 | +35 | 77 |
| 2 |
Atalanta
|
34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | +50 | 71 |
| 3 |
Inter
|
33 | 21 | 8 | 4 | +38 | 71 |
| 4 |
Lazio
|
33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | +33 | 69 |
| 5 |
Roma
|
33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | +17 | 57 |
| 6 |
Napoli
|
34 | 16 | 8 | 10 | +10 | 56 |
| 7 |
Milan
|
34 | 16 | 8 | 10 | +10 | 56 |
| 8 |
Sassuolo
|
34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | +5 | 48 |
| 9 |
Verona
|
34 | 11 | 12 | 11 | +0 | 45 |
| 10 |
Bologna
|
34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -9 | 43 |
| 11 |
Cagliari
|
34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | -1 | 42 |
| 12 |
Fiorentina
|
34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | -2 | 42 |
| 13 |
Sampdoria
|
34 | 12 | 5 | 17 | -11 | 41 |
| 14 |
Parma
|
34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | -3 | 40 |
| 15 |
Torino
|
34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | -21 | 37 |
| 16 |
Udinese
|
34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | -16 | 36 |
| 17 |
Genoa
|
34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | -22 | 33 |
| 18 |
Lecce
|
34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | -34 | 29 |
| 19 |
Brescia
|
34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | -39 | 24 |
| 20 |
Spal
|
34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | -40 | 19 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Pau López
G
Gianluca Mancini
D
Leonardo Spinazzola
M
Lorenzo Pellegrini
F
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
F
Edin Džeko
F
Coach: Paulo Fonseca
Milan Škriniar
D
Stefan de Vrij
D
Alessandro Bastoni
D
Nicolò Barella
M
Roberto Gagliardini
M
Lautaro Martínez
F
Coach: A. Conte
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Roma
Verona
Brescia
Roma
Roma
Parma
Napoli
Roma
Roma
Udinese
M Di Bello · 127 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.