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Bundesliga

Referee: Robert Hartmann

Hamburg

U T T S U

4–0

Full-time

Mainz

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hamburg Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

20%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

40%

20%

Both score Ø 30%

20%

40%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

0,4

1,0

Conceded

1,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,91 xG 0,67

35% Possession 65%

15 Shots 11

9 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

1 Corners 4

3 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hamburg 15. · Mainz 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	6	0	0	+22	+13.5	18
2	Dortmund	6	4	2	0	+8	+5.1	14
3	RB Leipzig	6	4	1	1	+0	+2.1	13
4	Stuttgart	6	4	0	2	+2	+2.0	12
5	Leverkusen	6	3	2	1	+4	+3.9	11
6	FC Koln	6	3	1	2	+2	-1.4	10
7	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	0	3	+1	+0.9	9
8	Freiburg	5	2	1	2	+0	+1.0	7
9	St Pauli	6	2	1	3	-1	-0.2	7
10	Hoffenheim	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.1	7
11	Werder Bremen	6	2	1	3	-5	-4.3	7
12	Union Berlin	6	2	1	3	-5	-5.0	7
13	Augsburg	6	2	0	4	-2	-7.4	6
14	Wolfsburg	6	1	2	3	-2	+0.1	5
15	Hamburg	5	1	2	2	-6	-4.7	5
16	Mainz	5	1	1	3	-1	+1.0	4
17	Heidenheim	6	1	0	5	-7	-4.9	3
18	M'gladbach	5	0	2	3	-7	-0.7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+15	+6.2	9
2	Stuttgart	3	3	0	0	+4	+0.8	9
3	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.5	7
4	Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	+3	+4.5	7
5	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.8	6
6	St Pauli	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.0	4
7	Freiburg	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.0	4
8	Union Berlin	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.3	4
9	Werder Bremen	3	1	1	1	-2	+0.4	4
10	FC Koln	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.4	3
11	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.1	3
12	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.7	3
13	Augsburg	3	1	0	2	-2	-4.6	3
14	Heidenheim	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.7	3
15	Wolfsburg	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.8	2
16	M'gladbach	3	0	1	2	-6	-1.0	1
17	Mainz	3	0	0	3	-4	-1.7	0
18	Hoffenheim	3	0	0	3	-6	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+7	+7.3	9
2	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+4	+3.6	7
3	Hoffenheim	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.1	7
4	FC Koln	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.8	7
5	RB Leipzig	4	2	1	1	-4	-0.7	7
6	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.2	6
7	Mainz	2	1	1	0	+3	+2.7	4
8	Leverkusen	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
9	Augsburg	3	1	0	2	+0	-2.8	3
10	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.0	3
11	Wolfsburg	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.9	3
12	St Pauli	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.2	3
13	Stuttgart	3	1	0	2	-2	+1.2	3
14	Werder Bremen	3	1	0	2	-3	-4.6	3
15	Union Berlin	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.8	3
16	Hamburg	3	0	2	1	-5	-2.9	2
17	M'gladbach	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.3	1
18	Heidenheim	3	0	0	3	-4	-1.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.