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Bundesliga

Referee: Deniz Aytekin

Union Berlin

S S T T S

0–0

Full-time

Hamburg

S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Hamburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,5

3,0

Scored

2,5

1,0

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

50%

25%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

4,8

2,5

Scored

2,0

0,5

Conceded

2,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,37 xG 1,08

34% Possession 66%

11 Shots 16

2 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

18 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Union Berlin 11. · Hamburg 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	5	0	0	+19	+12.1	15
2	Dortmund	5	4	1	0	+8	+5.3	13
3	RB Leipzig	5	4	0	1	+0	+1.9	12
4	Ein Frankfurt	5	3	0	2	+4	+2.3	9
5	Stuttgart	5	3	0	2	+1	+1.3	9
6	Leverkusen	5	2	2	1	+2	+1.7	8
7	FC Koln	5	2	1	2	+1	-1.2	7
8	Freiburg	5	2	1	2	+0	+1.0	7
9	St Pauli	5	2	1	2	+0	+0.9	7
10	Hoffenheim	5	2	1	2	-2	-1.2	7
11	Union Berlin	4	2	0	2	-3	-3.2	6
12	Wolfsburg	5	1	2	2	+0	+0.6	5
13	Mainz	5	1	1	3	-1	+1.0	4
14	Werder Bremen	5	1	1	3	-6	-5.4	4
15	Hamburg	4	1	1	2	-6	-4.4	4
16	Augsburg	5	1	0	4	-4	-7.9	3
17	Heidenheim	5	1	0	4	-6	-4.3	3
18	M'gladbach	5	0	2	3	-7	-0.7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+15	+6.2	9
2	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.8	6
3	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.7	6
4	Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.2	6
5	Leverkusen	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.4	4
6	St Pauli	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.0	4
7	Freiburg	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.0	4
8	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.5	3
9	FC Koln	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.4	3
10	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
11	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.7	3
12	Heidenheim	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.7	3
13	Wolfsburg	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.8	2
14	Werder Bremen	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.7	1
15	M'gladbach	3	0	1	2	-6	-1.0	1
16	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-4	-5.1	0
17	Mainz	3	0	0	3	-4	-1.7	0
18	Hoffenheim	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+4	+3.6	7
2	Hoffenheim	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.1	7
3	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+4	+5.9	6
4	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.2	6
5	RB Leipzig	3	2	0	1	-4	-0.9	6
6	Mainz	2	1	1	0	+3	+2.7	4
7	Leverkusen	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
8	FC Koln	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.6	4
9	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.4	3
10	Augsburg	3	1	0	2	+0	-2.8	3
11	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.0	3
12	St Pauli	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
13	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.6	3
14	Stuttgart	3	1	0	2	-2	+1.2	3
15	Werder Bremen	3	1	0	2	-3	-4.6	3
16	M'gladbach	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.3	1
17	Hamburg	2	0	1	1	-5	-2.7	1
18	Heidenheim	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.