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Bundesliga
Referee: Daniel Siebert
Hamburg
U T S S U
2–1
Full-time
FC Koln
U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hamburg FC Koln
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,8
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
3,2
3,7
Scored
1,3
1,5
Conceded
1,8
2,2
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,7
This season — Bundesliga · 25/25 matches
Win Ø 32%
28%
36%
Points per game
1,1
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
56%
52%
Both score Ø 50%
40%
60%
Average goals
2,8
2,6
Scored
1,0
1,5
Conceded
1,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,9
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

52% Possession 48%
14 Shots 7
4 Shots on target 1
3 Blocked shots 1
0 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 1
4 Offside 2
19 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hamburg 16. · FC Koln 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 25 19 5 1 +48 62
2 RB Leipzig 25 15 4 6 +15 49
3 Hoffenheim 26 12 12 2 +23 48
4 Dortmund 25 13 7 5 +27 46
5 Hertha 26 12 4 10 +2 40
6 FC Koln 25 9 10 6 +8 37
7 Ein Frankfurt 25 10 6 9 -1 36
8 Freiburg 25 10 5 10 -10 35
9 Schalke 04 25 9 6 10 +5 33
10 M'gladbach 25 9 5 11 -4 32
11 Leverkusen 25 9 4 12 -3 31
12 Mainz 25 8 5 12 -8 29
13 Werder Bremen 25 8 5 12 -10 29
14 Augsburg 25 7 8 10 -10 29
15 Wolfsburg 25 8 5 12 -11 29
16 Hamburg 25 7 6 12 -22 27
17 FC Ingolstadt 04 25 5 4 16 -19 19
18 Darmstadt 25 4 3 18 -30 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Hamburg FC Koln
1–0 N. Müller
B. Wood
13′
25′
M. Jojić 1–1
C. Clemens
34′
🟨 Simon Zoller
37′
🟨 Miloš Jojić
Half-time 1–1
A. Ekdal 🔁
↦ G. Jung
46′
46′
🔁 D. Heintz
↦ D. Maroh
M. Gregoritsch 🔁
↦ N. Müller
53′
Lewis Holtby 🟨
60′
Walace 🟨
67′
G. Sakai 🔁
↦ Walace
70′
76′
🔁 S. Guirassy
↦ C. Clemens
77′
🟨 Sehrou Guirassy
2–1 L. Holtby
91′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Hamburg

4-2-3-1
1 R. Adler
13 M. Mavraj D
9 K. Papadopoulos D
2 D. Diekmeier D
6 Douglas Santos D
28 G. Jung M
27 N. Müller M
8 L. Holtby M
17 F. Kostić M
12 Walace M
7 B. Wood F
Bench (7)
20 A. Ekdal
11 M. Gregoritsch
24 G. Sakai
31 C. Mathenia
5 J. Djourou
10 P. Lasogga
22 M. Ostrzolek

Coach: M. Gisdol

FC Koln

4-4-2
1 T. Horn G
2 N. Subotić D
34 K. Rausch D
5 D. Maroh D
16 P. Olkowski D
14 J. Hector M
17 C. Clemens M
6 M. Höger M
8 M. Jojić M
27 A. Modeste F
11 S. Zoller F
Bench (7)
3 D. Heintz
19 S. Guirassy
20 S. Özcan
31 B. Risa
24 L. Klünter
18 T. Kessler
4 F. Sørensen

Coach: P. Stöger

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Daniel Siebert · 86 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.