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Bundesliga

Referee: Deniz Aytekin

Bayern Munich

S S S S S

3–0

Full-time

Leverkusen

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

4,0

4,7

Scored

3,5

2,5

Conceded

0,5

2,2

Goal diff per game

+3,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 82%

100%

63%

Points per game

3,0

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 82%

100%

63%

Both score Ø 57%

38%

75%

Average goals

4,3

3,6

Scored

3,8

2,3

Conceded

0,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

+3,3

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,03 xG 0,23

59% Possession 41%

18 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 3

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 1. · Leverkusen 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	8	0	0	+26	+17.6	24
2	RB Leipzig	9	7	1	1	+9	+4.2	22
3	Dortmund	9	6	2	1	+9	+5.2	20
4	Stuttgart	9	6	0	3	+4	+3.4	18
5	Leverkusen	8	5	2	1	+7	+6.7	17
6	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	2	3	+3	+2.6	14
7	Hoffenheim	8	4	1	3	+2	+1.6	13
8	Werder Bremen	9	3	3	3	-4	-6.2	12
9	FC Koln	8	3	2	3	+1	-3.4	11
10	Union Berlin	9	3	2	4	-4	-4.8	11
11	Freiburg	9	2	4	3	-2	+0.4	10
12	Wolfsburg	8	2	2	4	-4	-3.9	8
13	Hamburg	8	2	2	4	-4	-0.5	8
14	Augsburg	9	2	1	6	-9	-8.4	7
15	St Pauli	9	2	1	6	-10	-4.8	7
16	M'gladbach	9	1	3	5	-8	-3.2	6
17	Mainz	9	1	2	6	-7	-2.1	5
18	Heidenheim	9	1	2	6	-9	-4.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	4	0	0	+16	+7.1	12
2	RB Leipzig	4	4	0	0	+7	+2.9	12
3	Stuttgart	4	4	0	0	+5	+1.3	12
4	Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	+5	+5.5	10
5	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.0	10
6	Union Berlin	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.7	8
7	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	-1	+0.8	7
8	Hamburg	4	2	0	2	+2	+1.9	6
9	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	0	2	+1	+2.9	6
10	Freiburg	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.3	5
11	Heidenheim	5	1	2	2	-3	-1.8	5
12	FC Koln	3	1	1	1	+2	-0.1	4
13	St Pauli	5	1	1	3	-7	-1.8	4
14	Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	-4	-0.9	3
15	Augsburg	5	1	0	4	-9	-6.1	3
16	Wolfsburg	4	0	2	2	-4	-2.4	2
17	M'gladbach	5	0	2	3	-9	-4.3	2
18	Mainz	5	0	1	4	-5	-3.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	4	0	0	+10	+10.5	12
2	Hoffenheim	4	3	1	0	+6	+2.5	10
3	Dortmund	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.2	10
4	RB Leipzig	5	3	1	1	+2	+1.3	10
5	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	2	1	+2	-0.3	8
6	Leverkusen	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.2	7
7	FC Koln	5	2	1	2	-1	-3.3	7
8	Wolfsburg	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.5	6
9	Stuttgart	5	2	0	3	-1	+2.1	6
10	Freiburg	5	1	2	2	-2	-0.9	5
11	Werder Bremen	5	1	2	2	-3	-7.0	5
12	M'gladbach	4	1	1	2	+1	+1.2	4
13	Augsburg	4	1	1	2	+0	-2.3	4
14	Mainz	4	1	1	2	-2	+1.0	4
15	St Pauli	4	1	0	3	-3	-3.0	3
16	Union Berlin	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.1	3
17	Hamburg	4	0	2	2	-6	-2.5	2
18	Heidenheim	4	0	0	4	-6	-2.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.