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Bundesliga
Referee: Sascha Stegemann
M'gladbach
T U T U T
0–3
Full-time
Bayern Munich
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

M'gladbach Bayern Munich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,3
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,5
4,2
Scored
1,0
3,7
Conceded
2,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
-1,5
+3,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,4
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 72%
43%
100%
Both score Ø 43%
43%
43%
Average goals
3,0
4,4
Scored
0,9
3,9
Conceded
2,1
0,6
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+3,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,79 xG 3,97
17% Possession 83%
1 Shots 27
0 Shots on target 11
0 Blocked shots 8
7 Goalkeeper saves 0
1 Corners 8
1 Offside 1
6 Free kicks against 9
0 Yellow cards 3
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match M'gladbach 18. · Bayern Munich 1. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 7 7 0 0 +23 +14.4 21
2 RB Leipzig 7 5 1 1 +1 +1.6 16
3 Stuttgart 7 5 0 2 +5 +3.5 15
4 Dortmund 7 4 2 1 +7 +4.2 14
5 Leverkusen 7 4 2 1 +5 +5.7 14
6 FC Koln 7 3 2 2 +2 -1.9 11
7 Werder Bremen 8 3 2 3 -4 -5.8 11
8 Ein Frankfurt 7 3 1 3 +1 +0.7 10
9 Hoffenheim 7 3 1 3 +0 +0.3 10
10 Union Berlin 8 3 1 4 -4 -4.8 10
11 Freiburg 7 2 3 2 +0 +1.4 9
12 Hamburg 7 2 2 3 -3 -2.9 8
13 Augsburg 7 2 1 4 -2 -6.9 7
14 St Pauli 7 2 1 4 -4 -1.5 7
15 Wolfsburg 7 1 2 4 -5 -1.5 5
16 Mainz 7 1 1 5 -6 -2.0 4
17 Heidenheim 7 1 1 5 -7 -2.9 4
18 M'gladbach 7 0 3 4 -9 -1.4 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

M'gladbach Bayern Munich
Jens Castrop ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
18′
Jens Castrop 🟥
19′
28′
🟨 Dayot Upamecano
38′
🟨 Luis Díaz
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 R. Guerreiro
↦ S. Boey
46′
🔁 K. Laimer
↦ D. Upamecano
59′
🔁 S. Gnabry
↦ N. Jackson
S. Machino 🔁
↦ H. Tabakovic
63′
64′
⚽ J. Kimmich 0–1
69′
⚽ R. Guerreiro 0–2
M. Olise
Kevin Diks ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
73′
73′
🟨 Tom Bischof
L. Ullrich 🔁
↦ L. Netz
75′
J. Scally 🔁
↦ F. Honorat
76′
76′
🔁 L. Karl
↦ L. Diaz
81′
⚽ L. Karl 0–3
R. Guerreiro
82′
🔁 J. Stanisic
↦ T. Bischof
O. Fraulo 🔁
↦ R. Reitz
84′
G. Reyna 🔁
↦ K. Stoger
84′
Full-time 0–3

Line-ups

M'gladbach

5-4-1
33 M. Nicolas G
17 J. Castrop D
16 P. Sander D
30 N. Elvedi D
4 K. Diks D
20 L. Netz D
9 F. Honorat M
27 R. Reitz M
6 Y. Engelhardt M
7 K. Stoger M
15 H. Tabakovic F
Bench (9)
1 J. Omlin
29 J. Scally
26 L. Ullrich
5 M. Friedrich
22 O. Fraulo
13 G. Reyna
10 F. Neuhaus
40 J. Urbich
18 S. Machino

Coach: Eugen Polanski

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
40 J. Urbig G
23 S. Boey D
2 D. Upamecano D
3 Kim Min-Jae D
20 T. Bischof D
6 J. Kimmich M
8 L. Goretzka M
17 M. Olise M
9 H. Kane M
14 L. Diaz M
11 N. Jackson F
Bench (9)
1 M. Neuer
4 J. Tah
7 S. Gnabry
22 R. Guerreiro
27 K. Laimer
36 W. Mike
42 L. Karl
44 J. Stanisic
45 A. Pavlovic

Coach: Vincent Jean Mpoy Kompany

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
10,53
U
6,81
B ✓
1,22
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
O2,5 ✓
1,26
U2,5
3,67
U3,5 ✓
–
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
BLS nei ✓
–

Referee

Sascha Stegemann · 85 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
20,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.