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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Brighton

S U S T T

3–0

Full-time

Leeds

S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,8

2,8

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

67%

56%

Both score Ø 67%

89%

44%

Average goals

3,2

2,6

Scored

1,6

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,07 xG 0,50

50% Possession 50%

14 Shots 5

7 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 7

3 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 13. · Leeds 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	9	7	1	1	+13	+9.7	22
2	Bournemouth	9	5	3	1	+5	-0.1	18
3	Tottenham	9	5	2	2	+10	-0.9	17
4	Sunderland	9	5	2	2	+4	-1.8	17
5	Man City	9	5	1	3	+10	+6.7	16
6	Man United	9	5	1	3	+1	+2.8	16
7	Liverpool	9	5	0	4	+2	+4.1	15
8	Aston Villa	9	4	3	2	+1	-4.4	15
9	Chelsea	9	4	2	3	+6	+0.2	14
10	Crystal Palace	9	3	4	2	+3	+6.0	13
11	Brentford	9	4	1	4	+0	+1.4	13
12	Newcastle	9	3	3	3	+1	+4.9	12
13	Brighton	9	3	3	3	-1	+1.4	12
14	Everton	9	3	2	4	-3	-1.5	11
15	Leeds	9	3	2	4	-5	+2.7	11
16	Burnley	9	3	1	5	-5	-11.8	10
17	Fulham	9	2	2	5	-5	-3.9	8
18	Nott'm Forest	9	1	2	6	-12	-5.6	5
19	West Ham	9	1	1	7	-13	-7.5	4
20	Wolves	9	0	2	7	-12	-2.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	5	4	1	0	+11	+7.1	13
2	Bournemouth	5	4	1	0	+6	+2.4	13
3	Man United	5	4	0	1	+5	+5.3	12
4	Sunderland	4	3	1	0	+6	+0.6	10
5	Brentford	5	3	1	1	+3	+0.4	10
6	Aston Villa	5	3	1	1	+1	-2.2	10
7	Man City	4	3	0	1	+7	+4.7	9
8	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.2	9
9	Newcastle	5	3	0	2	+2	+3.7	9
10	Brighton	4	2	2	0	+2	+0.7	8
11	Leeds	5	2	2	1	+1	+4.6	8
12	Everton	5	2	2	1	+0	+0.8	8
13	Burnley	4	2	1	1	+3	-4.7	7
14	Fulham	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.8	7
15	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	+0	+0.4	7
16	Crystal Palace	4	1	3	0	+1	+4.8	6
17	Tottenham	4	1	1	2	+1	+0.1	4
18	Nott'm Forest	4	1	0	3	-5	-0.7	3
19	Wolves	5	0	1	4	-8	-0.9	1
20	West Ham	4	0	0	4	-10	-6.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	5	4	1	0	+9	-1.0	13
2	Arsenal	4	3	0	1	+2	+2.6	9
3	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+6	-0.3	7
4	Man City	5	2	1	2	+3	+2.0	7
5	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	+2	+1.3	7
6	Sunderland	5	2	1	2	-2	-2.4	7
7	Liverpool	5	2	0	3	-1	+2.0	6
8	Aston Villa	4	1	2	1	+0	-2.2	5
9	Bournemouth	4	1	2	1	-1	-2.5	5
10	Brighton	5	1	1	3	-3	+0.7	4
11	West Ham	5	1	1	3	-3	-1.2	4
12	Man United	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.6	4
13	Newcastle	4	0	3	1	-1	+1.2	3
14	Brentford	4	1	0	3	-3	+0.9	3
15	Everton	4	1	0	3	-3	-2.3	3
16	Leeds	4	1	0	3	-6	-1.9	3
17	Burnley	5	1	0	4	-8	-7.0	3
18	Nott'm Forest	5	0	2	3	-7	-4.9	2
19	Wolves	4	0	1	3	-4	-1.4	1
20	Fulham	5	0	1	4	-7	-3.1	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.