Primeira Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Guimaraes
Benfica
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Sp Lisbon
|
10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +20 | +18.2 | 25 |
| 2 |
Porto
|
9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | +19 | +13.8 | 25 |
| 3 |
Benfica
|
9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +14 | +10.7 | 21 |
| 4 |
Gil Vicente
|
9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +10 | +3.9 | 19 |
| 5 |
Famalicao
|
10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | +7 | +5.9 | 19 |
| 6 |
Moreirense
|
9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | +0 | -5.1 | 15 |
| 7 |
Sp Braga
|
9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +8 | +4.9 | 13 |
| 8 |
Santa Clara
|
9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | +2.8 | 11 |
| 9 |
Nacional
|
10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | -2.6 | 11 |
| 10 |
Rio Ave
|
10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -5 | -8.2 | 11 |
| 11 |
Guimaraes
|
9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | -2.5 | 11 |
| 12 |
Estoril
|
10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | +1 | -1.8 | 10 |
| 13 |
Estrela
|
10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -1 | +0.7 | 10 |
| 14 |
Alverca
|
10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -7 | -2.9 | 10 |
| 15 |
Arouca
|
9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -14 | -13.2 | 9 |
| 16 |
Casa Pia
|
10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | -8.2 | 8 |
| 17 |
Tondela
|
9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -13 | -7.9 | 5 |
| 18 |
AVS
|
9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -17 | -8.6 | 1 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
J. Castillo
G
Maga
D
O. Rivas Viondi
D
J. I. Mendes
D
Beni
M
D. Sousa
M
T. Arcanjo
M
Samu
M
O. Camara
F
Coach: Luís Miguel Correia Pinto
A. Trubin
G
F. Aursnes
D
T. Araujo
D
S. Dahl
D
R. Rios
M
E. Barrenechea
M
D. Lukebakio
M
G. Sudakov
M
G. Prestianni
M
V. Pavlidis
F
Coach: José Mário dos Santos Mourinho Félix
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Famalicao
Guimaraes
União Lamas
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
Santa Clara
Alverca
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
Sp Braga
Joao Pedro Pinheiro · 221 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.