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Bundesliga

Referee: F Zwayer

Bayern Munich

S S S S S

1–1

Full-time

Leverkusen

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 92%

100%

83%

Points per game

3,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

5,7

4,5

Scored

4,8

3,0

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+4,0

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 88%

100%

75%

Points per game

3,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 88%

75%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

4,8

5,5

Scored

4,0

3,3

Conceded

0,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

+3,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,38 xG 0,06

69% Possession 31%

18 Shots 3

3 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 1

11 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 1. · Leverkusen 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	4	0	0	+13	+7.1	12
2	RB Leipzig	5	3	2	0	+6	+1.0	11
3	Dortmund	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.8	10
4	Leverkusen	4	3	0	1	+4	+6.3	9
5	Heidenheim	5	3	0	2	+3	+2.1	9
6	Ein Frankfurt	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.6	9
7	Freiburg	5	3	0	2	+1	+4.3	9
8	Stuttgart	5	2	2	1	+4	+4.0	8
9	Union Berlin	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.4	8
10	M'gladbach	5	2	0	3	-2	-0.3	6
11	Mainz	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.1	5
12	Werder Bremen	4	1	2	1	-4	-1.9	5
13	Wolfsburg	5	1	1	3	-1	-3.2	4
14	St Pauli	5	1	1	3	-2	-2.1	4
15	Augsburg	5	1	1	3	-7	-1.0	4
16	Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	-5	-3.3	3
17	Bochum	5	0	1	4	-6	-7.4	1
18	Holstein Kiel	4	0	1	3	-8	-4.3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	3	3	0	0	+6	+3.3	9
2	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+5	+2.9	7
3	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.4	6
4	Union Berlin	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.4	6
5	Freiburg	3	2	0	1	+0	+4.1	6
6	Stuttgart	2	1	1	0	+4	+4.3	4
7	Augsburg	3	1	1	1	+1	+3.3	4
8	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
9	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.7	3
10	Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.5	3
11	M'gladbach	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.5	3
12	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.9	3
13	Wolfsburg	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.1	1
14	Bochum	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.7	1
15	St Pauli	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.5	1
16	Mainz	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.8	1
17	Werder Bremen	2	0	1	1	-5	-3.2	1
18	Holstein Kiel	2	0	0	2	-7	-3.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+11	+6.5	9
2	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.9	6
3	Heidenheim	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.4	6
4	Mainz	2	1	1	0	+1	-3.2	4
5	Werder Bremen	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.3	4
6	RB Leipzig	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.9	4
7	Stuttgart	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.3	4
8	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.1	3
9	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.1	3
10	St Pauli	3	1	0	2	+0	-2.7	3
11	M'gladbach	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
12	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.2	3
13	Union Berlin	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.8	2
14	Holstein Kiel	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
15	Dortmund	2	0	1	1	-4	-2.5	1
16	Hoffenheim	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.4	0
17	Bochum	3	0	0	3	-4	-4.8	0
18	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-8	-4.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.