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DFB-Pokal

Referee: Patrick Ittrich

Paderborn

S S S S S

2–4

Full-time

Leverkusen

U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paderborn Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

4,2

Scored

2,2

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — DFB-Pokal · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

4,0

Scored

3,0

4,0

Conceded

1,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+4,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

36% Possession 64%

18 Shots 29

5 Shots on target 14

4 Blocked shots 5

10 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 6

0 Offside 4

18 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paderborn 18. · Leverkusen 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	M'gladbach	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Bochum	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Holstein Kiel	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Hamburg	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	1	0	+5	4
7	Hoffenheim	2	1	1	0	+4	4
8	Hertha	2	1	1	0	+3	4
9	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	+8	3
11	Kaiserslautern	1	1	0	0	+7	3
12	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+5	3
13	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+4	3
14	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+4	3
15	Karlsruhe	2	1	0	1	+3	3
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Magdeburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Paderborn	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Greuther Furth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Augsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	3
23	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Bielefeld	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Mainz	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Schalke 04	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Cottbus	2	1	0	1	-2	3
29	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
30	St Pauli	2	0	2	0	+0	2
31	Braunschweig	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Stuttgart	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Illertissen	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Nurnberg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Preußen Münster	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Eintracht Norderstedt	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Wehen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Atlas Delmenhorst	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Regensburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	VfB Lubeck	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Pirmasens	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Dresden	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Ulm	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Rot-Weiß Essen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Lokomotive Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Sandhausen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	FC Schweinfurt 05	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	FC Saarbrücken	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	FC Viktoria Koln	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	BFC Dynamo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	BW Lohne	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	FC 08 Homburg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Sportfreunde Lotte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-4	0
58	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	1	0	0	1	-4	0
59	FV Engers 07	1	0	0	1	-5	0
60	FC Gutersloh	1	0	0	1	-5	0
61	Bahlinger SC	1	0	0	1	-5	0
62	ZFC Meuselwitz	1	0	0	1	-5	0
63	RSV Eintracht	1	0	0	1	-7	0
64	Hemelingen	1	0	0	1	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hertha	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Bielefeld	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Cottbus	2	1	0	1	-2	3
5	Braunschweig	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	Illertissen	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	St Pauli	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Preußen Münster	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Eintracht Norderstedt	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Wehen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Atlas Delmenhorst	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Regensburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	VfB Lubeck	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Pirmasens	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Wolfsburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Heidenheim	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Dresden	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Ulm	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Rot-Weiß Essen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Lokomotive Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Sandhausen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	FC Schweinfurt 05	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	FC Saarbrücken	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	FC Viktoria Koln	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	BFC Dynamo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	BW Lohne	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	FC 08 Homburg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	Sportfreunde Lotte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-4	0
33	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	1	0	0	1	-4	0
34	FV Engers 07	1	0	0	1	-5	0
35	FC Gutersloh	1	0	0	1	-5	0
36	Bahlinger SC	1	0	0	1	-5	0
37	ZFC Meuselwitz	1	0	0	1	-5	0
38	RSV Eintracht	1	0	0	1	-7	0
39	Hemelingen	1	0	0	1	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Bochum	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Holstein Kiel	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Hamburg	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Hoffenheim	2	1	1	0	+4	4
6	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+9	3
8	Kaiserslautern	1	1	0	0	+7	3
9	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+5	3
12	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+4	3
13	Karlsruhe	2	1	0	1	+3	3
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Magdeburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Paderborn	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Greuther Furth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Mainz	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Schalke 04	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
27	Stuttgart	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Nurnberg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Hertha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	St Pauli	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.