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Primeira Liga

Referee: Helder Malheiro

Casa Pia

U T U S T

3–5

Full-time

Estrela

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Casa Pia Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 17%

22%

11%

Points per game

0,9

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

44%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,8

1,9

Scored

0,9

0,8

Conceded

1,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,07 xG 2,17

56% Possession 44%

10 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 21

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Casa Pia 14. · Estrela 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	8	1	1	+20	+18.2	25
2	Porto	9	8	1	0	+19	+13.8	25
3	Benfica	9	6	3	0	+14	+10.7	21
4	Gil Vicente	9	6	1	2	+10	+3.9	19
5	Famalicao	10	5	4	1	+7	+5.9	19
6	Moreirense	9	5	0	4	+0	-5.1	15
7	Sp Braga	9	3	4	2	+8	+4.9	13
8	Rio Ave	9	2	5	2	-1	-5.2	11
9	Santa Clara	9	3	2	4	-2	+2.8	11
10	Nacional	10	3	2	5	-4	-2.6	11
11	Guimaraes	9	3	2	4	-5	-2.5	11
12	Alverca	10	3	1	6	-7	-2.9	10
13	Arouca	9	2	3	4	-14	-13.2	9
14	Casa Pia	9	2	2	5	-9	-7.1	8
15	Estoril	9	1	4	4	-3	-4.8	7
16	Estrela	9	1	4	4	-3	-0.4	7
17	Tondela	9	1	2	6	-13	-7.9	5
18	AVS	9	0	1	8	-17	-8.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Moreirense	5	4	0	1	+5	-0.5	12
2	Benfica	5	3	2	0	+9	+8.7	11
3	Sp Lisbon	5	3	1	1	+10	+8.8	10
4	Porto	4	3	1	0	+8	+6.9	10
5	Gil Vicente	4	3	0	1	+4	+3.3	9
6	Famalicao	5	2	2	1	+4	+1.7	8
7	Guimaraes	4	2	2	0	+2	+1.5	8
8	Sp Braga	5	2	1	2	+5	+4.9	7
9	Santa Clara	5	2	1	2	+1	+4.0	7
10	Alverca	5	2	0	3	-5	+0.8	6
11	Rio Ave	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.8	5
12	Estoril	5	1	2	2	+0	-1.3	5
13	Arouca	5	1	2	2	-4	-6.0	5
14	Estrela	5	1	1	3	-1	+1.3	4
15	Nacional	5	1	0	4	-6	-1.0	3
16	Casa Pia	4	0	2	2	-4	-4.4	2
17	Tondela	4	0	2	2	-4	-2.1	2
18	AVS	4	0	0	4	-8	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	5	5	0	0	+11	+6.9	15
2	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+10	+9.4	15
3	Famalicao	5	3	2	0	+3	+4.2	11
4	Gil Vicente	5	3	1	1	+6	+0.6	10
5	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+5	+2.0	10
6	Nacional	5	2	2	1	+2	-1.6	8
7	Sp Braga	4	1	3	0	+3	-0.0	6
8	Rio Ave	5	1	3	1	-1	-4.4	6
9	Casa Pia	5	2	0	3	-5	-2.7	6
10	Alverca	5	1	1	3	-2	-3.7	4
11	Santa Clara	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.2	4
12	Arouca	4	1	1	2	-10	-7.2	4
13	Estrela	4	0	3	1	-2	-1.6	3
14	Moreirense	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.5	3
15	Guimaraes	5	1	0	4	-7	-4.0	3
16	Tondela	5	1	0	4	-9	-5.9	3
17	Estoril	4	0	2	2	-3	-3.5	2
18	AVS	5	0	1	4	-9	-5.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.