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Champions League
Referee: M Oliver
Bayern Munich
S U U S S
3–0
Full-time
Leverkusen
S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Leverkusen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,7
2,7
Scored
2,2
2,0
Conceded
0,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 10/8 matches
Win Ø 62%
60%
63%
Points per game
1,9
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
60%
50%
Both score Ø 43%
60%
25%
Average goals
3,7
2,8
Scored
2,3
1,9
Conceded
1,4
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,9
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,98 xG 0,33
65% Possession 35%
17 Shots 3
6 Shots on target 1
4 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 1
0 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

15. Feb -25 Leverkusen – Bayern Munich 0–0 3. Dec -24 Bayern Munich – Leverkusen 0–1 28. Sep -24 Bayern Munich – Leverkusen 1–1 10. Feb -24 Leverkusen – Bayern Munich 3–0 15. Sep -23 Bayern Munich – Leverkusen 2–2

Match report

Bayern Munich Leverkusen
1–0 H. Kane ⚽
M. Olise
9′
Konrad Laimer 🟨
39′
39′
🟨 Nordi Mukiele
Half-time 1–0
Leon Goretzka 🟨
50′
2–0 J. Musiala ⚽
54′
J. Urbig 🔁
↦ M. Neuer
58′
62′
🟨 Nordi Mukiele
62′
🟥 Nordi Mukiele
L. Sané 🔁
↦ K. Coman
68′
J. Stanišić 🔁
↦ K. Laimer
68′
68′
🔁 E. Tapsoba
↦ A. Adli
Harry Kane ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
73′
73′
🟨 Edmond Tapsoba
74′
🟨 Jonathan Tah
3–0 H. Kane ⚽
75′
80′
🔁 P. Schick
↦ F. Wirtz
81′
🔁 Aleix García
↦ G. Xhaka
81′
🔁 Arthur
↦ J. Frimpong
87′
🔁 E. Buendía
↦ Álex Grimaldo
E. Dier 🔁
↦ Kim Min-Jae
89′
João Palhinha 🔁
↦ L. Goretzka
89′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer G
27 K. Laimer D
2 D. Upamecano D
3 Kim Min-Jae D
19 A. Davies D
8 L. Goretzka M
6 J. Kimmich M
17 M. Olise M
42 J. Musiala M
11 K. Coman M
9 H. Kane F
Bench (12)
40 J. Urbig
10 L. Sané
44 J. Stanišić
15 E. Dier
16 João Palhinha
25 T. Müller
21 H. Ito
23 S. Boey
24 G. Vidović
7 S. Gnabry
26 S. Ulreich
22 Raphaël Guerreiro

Coach: V. Kompany

Leverkusen

4-4-2
17 M. Kovář G
23 N. Mukiele D
4 J. Tah D
5 Hermoso D
3 P. Hincapié D
30 J. Frimpong M
34 G. Xhaka M
25 E. Palacios M
20 Álex Grimaldo M
21 A. Adli F
10 F. Wirtz F
Bench (10)
12 E. Tapsoba
14 P. Schick
24 Aleix García
13 Arthur
16 E. Buendía
22 V. Boniface
7 J. Hofmann
36 N. Lomb
1 L. Hrádecký
19 N. Tella

Coach: Xabi Alonso

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Oliver · 207 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.