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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Ferreira

Moreirense

T U S T T

1–0

Full-time

Farense

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Farense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

20%

40%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 80%

80%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,13 xG 0,46

55% Possession 45%

15 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

11 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Moreirense 16. · Farense 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Boavista	5	4	1	0	+8	+2.0	13
2	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+6	+4.8	13
3	Porto	5	4	1	0	+4	+4.7	13
4	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+7	+6.1	12
5	Famalicao	6	3	2	1	+2	-3.6	11
6	Guimaraes	5	3	0	2	-1	-1.2	9
7	Casa Pia	5	2	2	1	+3	+1.2	8
8	Sp Braga	5	2	1	2	+0	-1.9	7
9	Gil Vicente	5	2	0	3	+4	-2.4	6
10	Farense	5	2	0	3	+2	-0.3	6
11	Arouca	6	1	3	2	-1	+0.2	6
12	Rio Ave	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.0	5
13	Portimonense	5	1	2	2	-7	-3.3	5
14	Vizela	5	1	1	3	-3	-0.4	4
15	Estrela	5	1	1	3	-3	-1.3	4
16	Moreirense	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.7	4
17	Estoril	5	1	0	4	-3	+1.2	3
18	Chaves	5	0	0	5	-13	-4.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+5	+4.8	9
2	Boavista	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.7	7
3	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.0	7
4	Gil Vicente	3	2	0	1	+6	-1.6	6
5	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.1	6
6	Farense	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.9	6
7	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.0	6
8	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.2	4
9	Porto	2	1	1	0	+1	+3.8	4
10	Arouca	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.2	4
11	Vizela	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.5	4
12	Estoril	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
13	Estrela	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.7	3
14	Sp Braga	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.4	1
15	Casa Pia	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.1	1
16	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.5	1
17	Moreirense	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.6	0
18	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	3	3	0	0	+3	+0.8	9
2	Casa Pia	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.3	7
3	Boavista	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.3	6
4	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.3	6
5	Benfica	3	2	0	1	+1	+2.0	6
6	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.0	4
7	Famalicao	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.6	4
8	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.1	4
9	Portimonense	3	1	1	1	-4	-1.8	4
10	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	-3	-1.2	3
11	Arouca	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.0	2
12	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.0	1
13	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.2	1
14	Farense	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.2	0
15	Gil Vicente	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
16	Vizela	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.9	0
17	Estoril	3	0	0	3	-4	+0.3	0
18	Chaves	3	0	0	3	-10	-4.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.