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Championship

Referee: M Salisbury

Stoke

U S S T T

1–0

Full-time

Birmingham

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 63%

75%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

75%

25%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,49 xG 0,52

42% Possession 58%

8 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 0

2 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

6 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 4. · Birmingham 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	5	4	1	0	+6	+2.4	13
2	Leicester	5	3	1	1	+3	-2.3	10
3	West Brom	4	3	1	0	+3	+0.2	10
4	Stoke	4	3	0	1	+5	+0.5	9
5	Coventry	4	2	2	0	+8	+4.2	8
6	Bristol City	4	2	2	0	+5	-0.1	8
7	Preston	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.4	8
8	Swansea	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.6	7
9	Portsmouth	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.6	7
10	Birmingham	4	2	1	1	+0	+3.0	7
11	Millwall	5	2	1	2	-3	+2.3	7
12	Ipswich	5	1	3	1	+4	+4.9	6
13	Norwich	4	2	0	2	+1	-1.0	6
14	Southampton	4	1	2	1	+0	+3.7	5
15	Watford	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.4	5
16	Charlton	5	1	2	2	-2	+0.9	5
17	Wrexham	4	1	1	2	+0	-5.2	4
18	Hull	4	1	1	2	-4	-3.5	4
19	QPR	4	1	1	2	-5	-1.5	4
20	Blackburn	4	1	0	3	-1	+0.3	3
21	Oxford	5	0	2	3	-3	-1.4	2
22	Derby	4	0	2	2	-4	-4.2	2
23	Sheffield Weds	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.0	1
24	Sheffield United	5	0	0	5	-11	-2.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Preston	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.2	7
2	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.7	6
3	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.9	6
4	Ipswich	3	1	2	0	+5	+4.2	5
5	Coventry	2	1	1	0	+6	+1.7	4
6	QPR	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
7	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
8	Watford	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.3	4
9	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.1	4
10	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.1	4
11	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.0	4
12	Charlton	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.3	4
13	Stoke	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.0	3
14	Southampton	2	1	0	1	+0	+3.3	3
15	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
16	Hull	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.6	3
17	Oxford	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.7	2
18	Wrexham	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
19	Derby	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.1	1
20	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.4	0
21	Blackburn	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
22	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.9	0
23	Millwall	2	0	0	2	-5	+0.8	0
24	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.5	7
2	Millwall	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.4	7
3	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.5	6
4	Norwich	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.4	6
5	West Brom	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.1	6
6	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.7	4
7	Coventry	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.5	4
8	Portsmouth	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
9	Leicester	3	1	1	1	+0	-4.0	4
10	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.0	3
11	Wrexham	2	1	0	1	+1	-3.5	3
12	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.6	3
13	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.8	3
14	Southampton	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
15	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
16	Watford	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
17	Ipswich	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.7	1
18	Preston	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
19	Derby	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.1	1
20	Hull	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.9	1
21	Charlton	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.4	1
22	Oxford	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.2	0
23	QPR	2	0	0	2	-7	-2.2	0
24	Sheffield United	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.