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Championship

Referee: Robert Madley

Wrexham

T S S U U

1–1

Full-time

Birmingham

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Wrexham Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,7

0,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 32%

25%

38%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

63%

38%

Both score Ø 63%

88%

38%

Average goals

3,4

2,1

Scored

1,6

0,9

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,74 xG 1,36

42% Possession 58%

12 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 5

3 Offside 2

4 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Wrexham 14. · Birmingham 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	7	5	2	0	+7	+1.9	17
2	Coventry	8	4	4	0	+15	+11.1	16
3	Stoke	8	4	2	2	+5	+1.3	14
4	West Brom	8	4	2	2	+2	+1.0	14
5	Bristol City	8	3	4	1	+6	+1.9	13
6	Leicester	8	3	4	1	+3	-2.0	13
7	Preston	8	3	4	1	+2	-2.2	13
8	Swansea	8	3	3	2	+2	+0.4	12
9	Charlton	8	3	3	2	+2	+0.8	12
10	QPR	8	3	3	2	-2	-0.7	12
11	Birmingham	8	3	2	3	-3	+3.0	11
12	Millwall	8	3	2	3	-6	-0.5	11
13	Ipswich	7	2	4	1	+5	+5.6	10
14	Wrexham	8	2	3	3	-1	-5.6	9
15	Southampton	7	2	3	2	-1	+4.0	9
16	Watford	8	2	3	3	-1	+1.7	9
17	Portsmouth	8	2	3	3	-2	-0.4	9
18	Hull	8	2	3	3	-3	-3.4	9
19	Norwich	8	2	2	4	-1	-3.3	8
20	Derby	8	1	4	3	-4	-4.7	7
21	Oxford	8	1	3	4	-2	-0.7	6
22	Blackburn	7	2	0	5	-4	+0.2	6
23	Sheffield Weds	8	1	3	4	-7	-4.9	6
24	Sheffield United	8	1	0	7	-12	-4.4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	4	3	1	0	+3	+0.4	10
2	Coventry	4	2	2	0	+9	+7.1	8
3	Ipswich	4	2	2	0	+6	+4.9	8
4	Leicester	4	2	2	0	+3	+2.6	8
5	QPR	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.3	8
6	Birmingham	4	2	2	0	+2	+3.0	8
7	Preston	4	2	2	0	+2	-1.7	8
8	Charlton	4	2	1	1	+3	+2.2	7
9	Stoke	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.5	7
10	Watford	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.6	7
11	Hull	4	2	1	1	+0	-0.2	7
12	Swansea	4	1	3	0	+1	+0.9	6
13	Bristol City	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.1	5
14	West Brom	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.7	5
15	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	+3.6	4
16	Portsmouth	4	1	1	2	-2	+0.3	4
17	Millwall	4	1	0	3	-8	-1.5	3
18	Oxford	4	0	2	2	-2	+1.4	2
19	Wrexham	4	0	2	2	-3	-0.9	2
20	Derby	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.5	2
21	Sheffield Weds	4	0	1	3	-8	-2.7	1
22	Norwich	4	0	0	4	-4	+0.3	0
23	Blackburn	3	0	0	3	-4	-1.6	0
24	Sheffield United	4	0	0	4	-6	-0.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	4	3	0	1	+2	-0.7	9
2	Coventry	4	2	2	0	+6	+4.0	8
3	Bristol City	4	2	2	0	+6	+1.8	8
4	Norwich	4	2	2	0	+3	-3.7	8
5	Millwall	4	2	2	0	+2	+1.0	8
6	Middlesbrough	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.5	7
7	Stoke	4	2	1	1	+3	-0.2	7
8	Wrexham	4	2	1	1	+2	-4.7	7
9	Swansea	4	2	0	2	+1	-0.5	6
10	Blackburn	4	2	0	2	+0	+1.8	6
11	Sheffield Weds	4	1	2	1	+1	-2.1	5
12	Leicester	4	1	2	1	+0	-4.7	5
13	Preston	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.5	5
14	Portsmouth	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.7	5
15	Southampton	4	1	2	1	-1	+0.4	5
16	Derby	4	1	2	1	-1	-3.2	5
17	Charlton	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.4	5
18	Oxford	4	1	1	2	+0	-2.0	4
19	QPR	4	1	1	2	-5	-2.0	4
20	Birmingham	4	1	0	3	-5	-0.1	3
21	Sheffield United	4	1	0	3	-6	-4.0	3
22	Ipswich	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.7	2
23	Watford	4	0	2	2	-2	+0.1	2
24	Hull	4	0	2	2	-3	-3.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.