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Championship

Referee: David Webb

Middlesbrough

S S S U S

0–0

Full-time

Stoke

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

1,8

Scored

1,7

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 6/7 matches

Win Ø 70%

83%

57%

Points per game

2,7

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

67%

43%

Both score Ø 47%

50%

43%

Average goals

2,5

2,1

Scored

1,8

1,4

Conceded

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,61 xG 1,20

55% Possession 45%

12 Shots 18

4 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 7

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 8

0 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 1. · Stoke 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	6	5	1	0	+7	+2.5	16
2	Coventry	7	3	4	0	+11	+8.8	13
3	Stoke	7	4	1	2	+5	+0.7	13
4	Bristol City	7	3	3	1	+6	+1.9	12
5	Leicester	7	3	3	1	+3	-2.2	12
6	Preston	7	3	3	1	+2	-1.8	12
7	Charlton	7	3	2	2	+2	+2.0	11
8	West Brom	7	3	2	2	+1	+1.7	11
9	QPR	7	3	2	2	-2	-1.1	11
10	Millwall	7	3	2	2	-2	+1.7	11
11	Birmingham	7	3	1	3	-3	+2.1	10
12	Ipswich	6	2	3	1	+5	+5.6	9
13	Swansea	7	2	3	2	+1	+0.5	9
14	Norwich	7	2	2	3	+0	-4.0	8
15	Wrexham	7	2	2	3	-1	-5.4	8
16	Watford	7	2	2	3	-1	+0.9	8
17	Portsmouth	7	2	2	3	-2	+0.4	8
18	Hull	7	2	2	3	-3	-3.8	8
19	Southampton	6	1	3	2	-2	+2.9	6
20	Blackburn	6	2	0	4	-3	+0.1	6
21	Derby	7	1	3	3	-4	-5.9	6
22	Oxford	7	1	2	4	-2	-0.2	5
23	Sheffield Weds	7	1	2	4	-7	-4.0	5
24	Sheffield United	7	1	0	6	-11	-3.3	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	3	3	0	0	+3	+1.0	9
2	Coventry	4	2	2	0	+9	+7.1	8
3	Ipswich	4	2	2	0	+6	+4.9	8
4	Preston	4	2	2	0	+2	-1.7	8
5	Charlton	4	2	1	1	+3	+2.2	7
6	QPR	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.9	7
7	Leicester	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.5	7
8	Stoke	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.5	7
9	Birmingham	3	2	1	0	+2	+2.1	7
10	Watford	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.6	7
11	Swansea	4	1	3	0	+1	+0.9	6
12	Hull	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.6	6
13	West Brom	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.7	5
14	Bristol City	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.1	4
15	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	+3.6	4
16	Portsmouth	3	1	0	2	-2	+1.0	3
17	Millwall	3	1	0	2	-4	+0.8	3
18	Oxford	4	0	2	2	-2	+1.4	2
19	Wrexham	4	0	2	2	-3	-0.9	2
20	Derby	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.7	1
21	Sheffield Weds	4	0	1	3	-8	-2.7	1
22	Norwich	3	0	0	3	-3	-0.3	0
23	Blackburn	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
24	Sheffield United	3	0	0	3	-5	+0.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bristol City	4	2	2	0	+6	+1.8	8
2	Norwich	4	2	2	0	+3	-3.7	8
3	Millwall	4	2	2	0	+2	+1.0	8
4	Middlesbrough	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.5	7
5	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
6	Wrexham	3	2	0	1	+2	-4.5	6
7	West Brom	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.0	6
8	Blackburn	4	2	0	2	+0	+1.8	6
9	Coventry	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.7	5
10	Leicester	4	1	2	1	+0	-4.7	5
11	Portsmouth	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.7	5
12	Derby	4	1	2	1	-1	-3.2	5
13	Sheffield Weds	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.2	4
14	Preston	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.1	4
15	Charlton	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.2	4
16	QPR	4	1	1	2	-5	-2.0	4
17	Oxford	3	1	0	2	+0	-1.6	3
18	Swansea	3	1	0	2	+0	-0.4	3
19	Birmingham	4	1	0	3	-5	-0.1	3
20	Sheffield United	4	1	0	3	-6	-4.0	3
21	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.7	2
22	Hull	4	0	2	2	-3	-3.2	2
23	Ipswich	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.7	1
24	Watford	3	0	1	2	-2	-0.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.