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Championship

Referee: A Backhouse

Stoke

U T T S U

1–1

Full-time

Norwich

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Norwich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 39%

33%

44%

Points per game

1,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

44%

Both score Ø 45%

33%

56%

Average goals

2,4

2,9

Scored

1,1

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,25 xG 1,52

39% Possession 61%

14 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 7

2 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 19. · Norwich 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sheffield United	10	6	3	1	+7	+3.6	21
2	Sunderland	9	6	1	2	+10	+2.9	19
3	Leeds	10	5	4	1	+10	+10.0	19
4	Burnley	9	5	3	1	+10	+1.5	18
5	West Brom	10	5	3	2	+6	+5.4	18
6	Watford	10	5	1	4	-3	-4.9	16
7	Norwich	9	4	3	2	+6	+5.7	15
8	Blackburn	9	4	3	2	+4	+0.1	15
9	Middlesbrough	9	4	2	3	+3	+8.7	14
10	Oxford	10	3	4	3	+2	-2.4	13
11	Swansea	9	3	3	3	+2	-3.2	12
12	Derby	9	4	0	5	+0	-1.3	12
13	Hull	9	3	3	3	-1	-2.6	12
14	Preston	10	3	3	4	-4	-4.0	12
15	Luton	10	3	2	5	-4	+1.8	11
16	Sheffield Weds	9	3	2	4	-4	-1.6	11
17	Bristol City	9	2	5	2	-4	+0.4	11
18	Plymouth	10	3	2	5	-8	-10.6	11
19	Stoke	9	3	1	5	-2	-3.0	10
20	Millwall	9	2	3	4	+1	+6.3	9
21	Coventry	10	2	2	6	-4	+1.3	8
22	Cardiff	10	2	2	6	-9	-3.7	8
23	QPR	9	1	4	4	-7	-2.2	7
24	Portsmouth	9	0	5	4	-11	-8.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	5	4	1	0	+8	+1.4	13
2	Watford	5	4	1	0	+6	+1.4	13
3	Sheffield United	5	4	1	0	+5	+4.9	13
4	Blackburn	4	4	0	0	+8	+2.8	12
5	Derby	5	4	0	1	+6	+1.1	12
6	Burnley	5	3	2	0	+7	+0.9	11
7	Oxford	5	3	2	0	+5	-0.0	11
8	Leeds	5	3	1	1	+6	+6.4	10
9	Plymouth	5	3	1	1	+3	+0.3	10
10	Preston	5	3	1	1	+3	+1.0	10
11	Norwich	5	2	3	0	+7	+5.5	9
12	Swansea	5	2	3	0	+4	+2.3	9
13	Bristol City	5	2	3	0	+2	+0.8	9
14	Middlesbrough	4	2	2	0	+3	+7.1	8
15	West Brom	5	2	2	1	+1	+3.7	8
16	Sheffield Weds	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.3	7
17	Luton	5	2	1	2	+0	+2.2	7
18	Stoke	4	2	0	2	+3	+1.2	6
19	Millwall	4	2	0	2	+3	+5.5	6
20	Coventry	5	2	0	3	+1	+3.3	6
21	Cardiff	5	2	0	3	+0	-2.1	6
22	Hull	4	1	2	1	+1	+1.2	5
23	Portsmouth	5	0	3	2	-5	-2.9	3
24	QPR	4	0	2	2	-4	+1.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	5	3	1	1	+5	+1.6	10
2	Leeds	5	2	3	0	+4	+3.6	9
3	Sheffield United	5	2	2	1	+2	-1.3	8
4	Burnley	4	2	1	1	+3	+0.6	7
5	Hull	5	2	1	2	-2	-3.9	7
6	Sunderland	4	2	0	2	+2	+1.4	6
7	Middlesbrough	5	2	0	3	+0	+1.6	6
8	Norwich	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.2	6
9	QPR	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.3	5
10	Luton	5	1	1	3	-4	-0.4	4
11	Stoke	5	1	1	3	-5	-4.2	4
12	Sheffield Weds	5	1	1	3	-7	-4.9	4
13	Millwall	5	0	3	2	-2	+0.8	3
14	Swansea	4	1	0	3	-2	-5.5	3
15	Blackburn	5	0	3	2	-4	-2.7	3
16	Watford	5	1	0	4	-9	-6.4	3
17	Oxford	5	0	2	3	-3	-2.4	2
18	Coventry	5	0	2	3	-5	-2.0	2
19	Portsmouth	4	0	2	2	-6	-5.2	2
20	Bristol City	4	0	2	2	-6	-0.5	2
21	Preston	5	0	2	3	-7	-4.9	2
22	Cardiff	5	0	2	3	-9	-1.6	2
23	Plymouth	5	0	1	4	-11	-10.9	1
24	Derby	4	0	0	4	-6	-2.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.