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Championship

Referee: J Simpson

Derby

S U U T U

2–1

Full-time

Stoke

S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,3

2,2

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

This season — Championship · 8/7 matches

Win Ø 35%

13%

57%

Points per game

0,9

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

25%

57%

Both score Ø 54%

50%

57%

Average goals

1,6

2,6

Scored

0,6

1,4

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

32% Possession 68%

14 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 19. · Stoke 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	8	5	3	0	+8	18
2	Fulham	7	5	1	1	+12	16
3	Bournemouth	7	4	3	0	+7	15
4	Coventry	7	5	0	2	+3	15
5	Stoke	7	4	2	1	+2	14
6	Huddersfield	7	4	1	2	+4	13
7	QPR	7	3	3	1	+5	12
8	Sheffield United	9	3	3	3	+4	12
9	Cardiff	8	3	3	2	+3	12
10	Blackburn	7	3	3	1	+3	12
11	Luton	8	3	3	2	+1	12
12	Birmingham	8	3	2	3	+0	11
13	Preston	8	3	2	3	-1	11
14	Reading	8	3	1	4	-2	10
15	Middlesbrough	7	2	3	2	+0	9
16	Bristol City	7	2	3	2	+0	9
17	Millwall	7	1	4	2	-2	7
18	Barnsley	7	1	4	2	-3	7
19	Derby	8	1	4	3	-3	7
20	Peterboro	8	2	1	5	-7	7
21	Swansea	7	1	3	3	-4	6
22	Blackpool	7	1	2	4	-6	5
23	Hull	8	1	2	5	-7	5
24	Peterborough	7	1	1	5	-10	4
25	Nott'm Forest	7	0	1	6	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Coventry	4	4	0	0	+5	12
2	Reading	5	3	1	1	+4	10
3	Stoke	4	3	1	0	+3	10
4	Preston	4	3	0	1	+1	9
5	West Brom	4	2	2	0	+5	8
6	Bournemouth	4	2	2	0	+4	8
7	Sheffield United	5	2	1	2	+6	7
8	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+5	7
9	Peterboro	4	2	1	1	+3	7
10	Blackburn	4	2	1	1	+2	7
11	Luton	4	2	1	1	+1	7
12	Huddersfield	3	2	0	1	+1	6
13	QPR	3	1	2	0	+2	5
14	Cardiff	3	1	1	1	+1	4
15	Middlesbrough	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Millwall	3	1	1	1	+0	4
17	Peterborough	3	1	1	1	+0	4
18	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	+0	4
19	Birmingham	4	1	1	2	-3	4
20	Derby	3	0	3	0	+0	3
21	Bristol City	4	0	3	1	-1	3
22	Swansea	4	0	3	1	-2	3
23	Blackpool	4	1	0	3	-5	3
24	Hull	4	0	1	3	-6	1
25	Nott'm Forest	4	0	0	4	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	4	3	1	0	+3	10
2	Fulham	4	3	0	1	+7	9
3	Cardiff	5	2	2	1	+2	8
4	QPR	4	2	1	1	+3	7
5	Birmingham	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	Huddersfield	4	2	1	1	+3	7
7	Bournemouth	3	2	1	0	+3	7
8	Bristol City	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Blackburn	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Luton	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Middlesbrough	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Sheffield United	4	1	2	1	-2	5
13	Hull	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Stoke	3	1	1	1	-1	4
15	Derby	5	1	1	3	-3	4
16	Millwall	4	0	3	1	-2	3
17	Swansea	3	1	0	2	-2	3
18	Coventry	3	1	0	2	-2	3
19	Barnsley	4	0	3	1	-3	3
20	Blackpool	3	0	2	1	-1	2
21	Preston	4	0	2	2	-2	2
22	Nott'm Forest	3	0	1	2	-2	1
23	Reading	3	0	0	3	-6	0
24	Peterboro	4	0	0	4	-10	0
25	Peterborough	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.