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Championship

Referee: R Jones

Derby

S S U S T

4–0

Full-time

Stoke

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,0

This season — Championship · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 31%

31%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

45%

59%

Both score Ø 52%

52%

Average goals

2,4

2,7

Scored

1,1

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

46% Possession 54%

10 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 7

1 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 16. · Stoke 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	29	16	7	6	+20	55
2	West Brom	29	14	11	4	+18	53
3	Nott'm Forest	29	14	9	6	+12	51
4	Fulham	27	14	6	7	+13	48
5	Bristol City	29	13	8	8	+3	47
6	Preston	29	13	7	9	+8	46
7	Swansea	27	12	9	6	+6	45
8	Millwall	29	11	11	7	+3	44
9	Blackburn	29	12	7	10	+6	43
10	Sheffield Weds	29	12	6	11	+7	42
11	Cardiff	28	10	11	7	-1	41
12	Hull	29	11	6	12	+3	39
13	Brentford	26	11	5	10	+16	38
14	QPR	29	11	5	13	-6	38
15	Reading	29	10	7	12	+2	37
16	Derby	29	9	10	10	-8	37
17	Middlesbrough	29	8	11	10	-7	35
18	Birmingham	29	9	7	13	-11	34
19	Huddersfield	29	8	8	13	-12	32
20	Stoke	29	9	4	16	-6	31
21	Charlton	29	7	9	13	-4	30
22	Wigan	29	6	8	15	-17	26
23	Barnsley	29	5	9	15	-19	24
24	Luton	29	7	3	19	-26	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	15	10	2	3	+13	32
2	Fulham	15	9	2	4	+10	29
3	Derby	15	8	5	2	+8	29
4	Leeds	14	8	4	2	+10	28
5	Cardiff	13	8	4	1	+10	28
6	Millwall	14	8	4	2	+9	28
7	Blackburn	15	7	6	2	+6	27
8	West Brom	14	6	6	2	+10	24
9	Swansea	14	7	3	4	+6	24
10	Nott'm Forest	14	7	3	4	+3	24
11	Middlesbrough	15	6	6	3	+1	24
12	QPR	15	6	4	5	+2	22
13	Bristol City	14	6	4	4	+2	22
14	Sheffield Weds	14	6	4	4	-1	22
15	Brentford	12	6	3	3	+12	21
16	Hull	15	6	2	7	+3	20
17	Charlton	15	5	5	5	+2	20
18	Reading	14	6	1	7	+1	19
19	Wigan	14	5	4	5	-4	19
20	Luton	14	5	3	6	-1	18
21	Birmingham	14	5	3	6	-1	18
22	Stoke	15	5	3	7	-1	18
23	Barnsley	15	4	6	5	-5	18
24	Huddersfield	15	4	5	6	-5	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	15	8	5	2	+8	29
2	Leeds	15	8	3	4	+10	27
3	Nott'm Forest	15	7	6	2	+9	27
4	Bristol City	15	7	4	4	+1	25
5	Swansea	13	5	6	2	+0	21
6	Sheffield Weds	15	6	2	7	+8	20
7	Fulham	12	5	4	3	+3	19
8	Hull	14	5	4	5	+0	19
9	Reading	15	4	6	5	+1	18
10	Brentford	14	5	2	7	+4	17
11	Blackburn	14	5	1	8	+0	16
12	Millwall	15	3	7	5	-6	16
13	QPR	14	5	1	8	-8	16
14	Birmingham	15	4	4	7	-10	16
15	Huddersfield	14	4	3	7	-7	15
16	Preston	14	3	5	6	-5	14
17	Stoke	14	4	1	9	-5	13
18	Cardiff	15	2	7	6	-11	13
19	Middlesbrough	14	2	5	7	-8	11
20	Charlton	14	2	4	8	-6	10
21	Derby	14	1	5	8	-16	8
22	Wigan	15	1	4	10	-13	7
23	Barnsley	14	1	3	10	-14	6
24	Luton	15	2	0	13	-25	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.