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Championship

Referee: J Gillett

Stoke

T T S T U

1–0

Full-time

Derby

T T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

0,7

0,5

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,0

This season — Championship · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 30%

32%

27%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

38%

27%

Both score Ø 36%

41%

30%

Average goals

2,2

1,8

Scored

1,1

0,7

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%

11 Shots 5

3 Shots on target 0

4 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 11. · Derby 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	37	25	7	5	+29	82
2	Watford	37	21	9	7	+26	72
3	Brentford	35	18	10	7	+25	64
4	Barnsley	35	19	7	9	+12	64
5	Swansea	33	18	8	7	+13	62
6	Reading	37	18	7	12	+11	61
7	Bournemouth	36	16	11	9	+19	59
8	Middlesbrough	37	16	8	13	+8	56
9	Cardiff	37	15	10	12	+17	55
10	Millwall	37	11	16	10	+1	49
11	Stoke	37	12	13	12	-1	49
12	QPR	36	13	10	13	-4	49
13	Bristol City	37	15	4	18	-9	49
14	Luton	36	13	8	15	-11	47
15	Blackburn	37	12	9	16	+8	45
16	Preston	37	13	5	19	-9	44
17	Nott'm Forest	38	10	12	16	-8	42
18	Huddersfield	37	11	9	17	-11	42
19	Derby	37	10	10	17	-14	40
20	Coventry	36	9	11	16	-16	38
21	Birmingham	37	9	11	17	-19	38
22	Sheffield Weds	36	9	8	19	-20	35
23	Rotherham	33	9	5	19	-11	32
24	Wycombe	37	6	8	23	-36	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	18	14	2	2	+23	44
2	Norwich	18	12	5	1	+17	41
3	Bournemouth	19	11	3	5	+14	36
4	Swansea	17	10	5	2	+11	35
5	Barnsley	17	10	4	3	+8	34
6	Reading	18	11	0	7	+8	33
7	Middlesbrough	19	10	3	6	+7	33
8	Brentford	16	9	5	2	+15	32
9	Huddersfield	18	8	4	6	+7	28
10	Stoke	18	8	4	6	+4	28
11	QPR	19	8	4	7	-1	28
12	Luton	18	7	6	5	+2	27
13	Coventry	18	7	6	5	+0	27
14	Cardiff	19	7	4	8	+11	25
15	Blackburn	19	6	7	6	+4	25
16	Sheffield Weds	18	6	6	6	+1	24
17	Bristol City	18	7	2	9	-5	23
18	Millwall	18	4	10	4	+1	22
19	Nott'm Forest	19	5	7	7	-2	22
20	Derby	19	5	6	8	-6	21
21	Preston	18	5	4	9	-2	19
22	Wycombe	19	4	5	10	-12	17
23	Rotherham	17	4	3	10	-5	15
24	Birmingham	19	4	3	12	-18	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	19	13	2	4	+12	41
2	Brentford	19	9	5	5	+10	32
3	Cardiff	18	8	6	4	+6	30
4	Barnsley	18	9	3	6	+4	30
5	Reading	19	7	7	5	+3	28
6	Watford	19	7	7	5	+3	28
7	Swansea	16	8	3	5	+2	27
8	Millwall	19	7	6	6	+0	27
9	Bristol City	19	8	2	9	-4	26
10	Preston	19	8	1	10	-7	25
11	Bournemouth	17	5	8	4	+5	23
12	Middlesbrough	18	6	5	7	+1	23
13	Birmingham	18	5	8	5	-1	23
14	QPR	17	5	6	6	-3	21
15	Stoke	19	4	9	6	-5	21
16	Blackburn	18	6	2	10	+4	20
17	Nott'm Forest	19	5	5	9	-6	20
18	Luton	18	6	2	10	-13	20
19	Derby	18	5	4	9	-8	19
20	Rotherham	16	5	2	9	-6	17
21	Huddersfield	19	3	5	11	-18	14
22	Coventry	18	2	5	11	-16	11
23	Sheffield Weds	18	3	2	13	-21	11
24	Wycombe	18	2	3	13	-24	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.