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Championship

Referee: G Ward

Oxford

T U U U U

1–1

Full-time

Derby

T T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Oxford Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 35%

30%

40%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

50%

40%

Both score Ø 55%

70%

40%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,46 xG 1,15

52% Possession 48%

11 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Oxford 11. · Derby 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	10	7	1	2	+11	+3.4	22
2	Burnley	10	6	3	1	+12	+1.7	21
3	Sheffield United	10	6	3	1	+7	+3.6	21
4	Leeds	10	5	4	1	+10	+10.0	19
5	West Brom	10	5	3	2	+6	+5.4	18
6	Blackburn	10	5	3	2	+5	-0.5	18
7	Norwich	10	4	4	2	+6	+6.0	16
8	Watford	10	5	1	4	-3	-4.9	16
9	Middlesbrough	10	4	2	4	+1	+9.6	14
10	Bristol City	10	3	5	2	-2	-0.5	14
11	Oxford	10	3	4	3	+2	-2.4	13
12	Derby	10	4	1	5	+0	-2.6	13
13	Swansea	10	3	3	4	+1	-2.6	12
14	Hull	10	3	3	4	-2	-3.2	12
15	Preston	10	3	3	4	-4	-4.0	12
16	Stoke	10	3	2	5	-2	-3.3	11
17	Luton	10	3	2	5	-4	+1.8	11
18	Sheffield Weds	10	3	2	5	-6	-1.8	11
19	Plymouth	10	3	2	5	-8	-10.6	11
20	Millwall	10	2	4	4	+1	+7.5	10
21	Coventry	10	2	2	6	-4	+1.3	8
22	Cardiff	10	2	2	6	-9	-3.7	8
23	Portsmouth	10	1	5	4	-10	-7.5	8
24	QPR	10	1	4	5	-8	-2.8	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Blackburn	5	5	0	0	+9	+2.2	15
2	Sunderland	5	4	1	0	+8	+1.4	13
3	Watford	5	4	1	0	+6	+1.4	13
4	Sheffield United	5	4	1	0	+5	+4.9	13
5	Derby	5	4	0	1	+6	+1.1	12
6	Burnley	5	3	2	0	+7	+0.9	11
7	Oxford	5	3	2	0	+5	-0.0	11
8	Leeds	5	3	1	1	+6	+6.4	10
9	Plymouth	5	3	1	1	+3	+0.3	10
10	Preston	5	3	1	1	+3	+1.0	10
11	Norwich	5	2	3	0	+7	+5.5	9
12	Swansea	5	2	3	0	+4	+2.3	9
13	Bristol City	5	2	3	0	+2	+0.8	9
14	Middlesbrough	5	2	2	1	+1	+8.0	8
15	West Brom	5	2	2	1	+1	+3.7	8
16	Stoke	5	2	1	2	+3	+0.9	7
17	Millwall	5	2	1	2	+3	+6.8	7
18	Sheffield Weds	5	2	1	2	+1	+3.1	7
19	Luton	5	2	1	2	+0	+2.2	7
20	Coventry	5	2	0	3	+1	+3.3	6
21	Cardiff	5	2	0	3	+0	-2.1	6
22	Hull	5	1	2	2	+0	+0.7	5
23	Portsmouth	5	0	3	2	-5	-2.9	3
24	QPR	5	0	2	3	-5	+0.5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	5	3	1	1	+5	+1.6	10
2	Burnley	5	3	1	1	+5	+0.8	10
3	Leeds	5	2	3	0	+4	+3.6	9
4	Sunderland	5	3	0	2	+3	+2.0	9
5	Sheffield United	5	2	2	1	+2	-1.3	8
6	Norwich	5	2	1	2	-1	+0.5	7
7	Hull	5	2	1	2	-2	-3.9	7
8	Middlesbrough	5	2	0	3	+0	+1.6	6
9	QPR	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.3	5
10	Bristol City	5	1	2	2	-4	-1.4	5
11	Portsmouth	5	1	2	2	-5	-4.6	5
12	Luton	5	1	1	3	-4	-0.4	4
13	Stoke	5	1	1	3	-5	-4.2	4
14	Sheffield Weds	5	1	1	3	-7	-4.9	4
15	Millwall	5	0	3	2	-2	+0.8	3
16	Swansea	5	1	0	4	-3	-4.9	3
17	Blackburn	5	0	3	2	-4	-2.7	3
18	Watford	5	1	0	4	-9	-6.4	3
19	Oxford	5	0	2	3	-3	-2.4	2
20	Coventry	5	0	2	3	-5	-2.0	2
21	Preston	5	0	2	3	-7	-4.9	2
22	Cardiff	5	0	2	3	-9	-1.6	2
23	Derby	5	0	1	4	-6	-3.7	1
24	Plymouth	5	0	1	4	-11	-10.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.