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Ekstraklasa

Referee: S Marciniak

Warta Poznan

U U T U S

0–2

Full-time

Lech Poznan

U S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Warta Poznan Lech Poznan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 7/5 matches

Win Ø 35%

29%

40%

Points per game

1,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

43%

40%

Both score Ø 62%

43%

80%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,4

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,44 xG 1,11

34% Possession 66%

7 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 4

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Warta Poznan 9. · Lech Poznan 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	8	5	1	2	+6	-0.8	16
2	Jagiellonia	7	5	0	2	+5	+3.8	15
3	Legia	6	4	2	0	+9	-0.2	14
4	Rakow	6	4	1	1	+7	+4.4	13
5	Zaglebie	7	4	1	2	+1	+0.8	13
6	Cracovia	7	2	4	1	+0	-0.2	10
7	Radomiak Radom	8	3	1	4	-1	-1.6	10
8	Widzew Lodz	8	3	1	4	-2	-1.7	10
9	Warta Poznan	7	2	3	2	+2	+1.6	9
10	Stal Mielec	7	2	3	2	+1	-2.6	9
11	Piast Gliwice	8	1	6	1	+0	+9.7	9
12	Pogon Szczecin	7	3	0	4	-2	+4.8	9
13	Gornik Zabrze	8	2	3	3	-5	-6.4	9
14	Lech Poznan	5	2	2	1	+1	-2.1	8
15	Puszcza	8	2	1	5	-7	-5.4	7
16	Ruch Chorzow	8	1	3	4	-4	-1.7	6
17	LKS Lodz	8	2	0	6	-8	–	6
18	Korona Kielce	7	1	2	4	-3	-2.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	5	4	1	0	+8	+4.4	13
2	Legia	4	4	0	0	+9	+2.0	12
3	Jagiellonia	4	4	0	0	+8	+5.7	12
4	Zaglebie	4	3	1	0	+3	+1.5	10
5	Widzew Lodz	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.2	9
6	Stal Mielec	4	2	2	0	+4	-1.2	8
7	Puszcza	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.4	7
8	Slask Wroclaw	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.4	6
9	LKS Lodz	3	2	0	1	+0	–	6
10	Pogon Szczecin	4	2	0	2	-1	+6.0	6
11	Warta Poznan	4	1	2	1	+1	+1.4	5
12	Cracovia	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.0	5
13	Piast Gliwice	4	1	2	1	+0	+5.8	5
14	Gornik Zabrze	4	1	2	1	-1	-2.5	5
15	Lech Poznan	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.0	4
16	Korona Kielce	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.5	4
17	Ruch Chorzow	3	1	1	1	+1	-0.2	4
18	Radomiak Radom	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	5	3	1	1	+4	-0.5	10
2	Radomiak Radom	5	2	0	3	-1	+0.4	6
3	Cracovia	4	1	2	1	-1	+0.8	5
4	Warta Poznan	3	1	1	1	+1	+0.2	4
5	Piast Gliwice	4	0	4	0	+0	+3.9	4
6	Lech Poznan	3	1	1	1	-1	-3.0	4
7	Gornik Zabrze	4	1	1	2	-4	-3.8	4
8	Pogon Szczecin	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.2	3
9	Zaglebie	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.7	3
10	Jagiellonia	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.9	3
11	Legia	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
12	Ruch Chorzow	5	0	2	3	-5	-1.5	2
13	Stal Mielec	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.4	1
14	Widzew Lodz	4	0	1	3	-4	-2.9	1
15	Korona Kielce	4	0	1	3	-4	-3.9	1
16	Rakow	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
17	Puszcza	4	0	0	4	-7	-4.0	0
18	LKS Lodz	5	0	0	5	-8	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.