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Eliteserien

Referee: K Hagenes

Sarpsborg 08

T T S S T

3–1

Full-time

Lillestrom

S T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sarpsborg 08 Lillestrom

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eliteserien · 21/20 matches

Win Ø 47%

43%

50%

Points per game

1,4

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

71%

70%

Both score Ø 69%

62%

75%

Average goals

3,4

Scored

1,8

1,9

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,21 xG 2,69

41% Possession 59%

18 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 8

1 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sarpsborg 08 7. · Lillestrom 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Viking	21	15	3	3	+20	+5.4	48
2	Bodo/Glimt	20	14	3	3	+26	+11.5	45
3	Tromso	20	13	3	4	+10	+2.9	42
4	Molde	21	12	4	5	+24	+13.0	40
5	Brann	20	11	3	6	+12	-0.4	36
6	Lillestrom	20	10	3	7	+6	+3.9	33
7	Sarpsborg 08	21	9	3	9	+3	+2.4	30
8	Odd	22	8	5	9	-3	-1.4	29
9	Rosenborg	21	8	4	9	-3	+1.1	28
10	Stromsgodset	21	8	2	11	-3	-3.2	26
11	Ham-Kam	20	7	2	11	-14	-9.0	23
12	Sandefjord	21	5	6	10	-8	-10.7	21
13	Haugesund	22	5	5	12	-14	-7.4	20
14	Valerenga	20	4	6	10	-8	-4.1	18
15	Stabaek	19	4	4	11	-14	-0.9	16
16	Aalesund	21	3	2	16	-34	-3.0	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brann	11	8	2	1	+15	+1.9	26
2	Viking	11	8	2	1	+14	+2.9	26
3	Molde	10	7	2	1	+18	+7.2	23
4	Tromso	11	7	2	2	+8	+5.7	23
5	Bodo/Glimt	9	6	2	1	+13	+2.4	20
6	Rosenborg	11	6	1	4	+4	+3.2	19
7	Lillestrom	10	6	0	4	+7	+3.3	18
8	Odd	10	5	2	3	+3	+1.9	17
9	Ham-Kam	11	5	2	4	+1	-6.2	17
10	Sandefjord	10	4	4	2	+9	-5.6	16
11	Sarpsborg 08	10	5	1	4	+7	+0.6	16
12	Stromsgodset	10	5	0	5	+2	-0.7	15
13	Haugesund	11	4	2	5	-3	-5.4	14
14	Stabaek	9	3	3	3	+2	-1.1	12
15	Aalesund	11	3	2	6	-8	+3.2	11
16	Valerenga	10	1	2	7	-9	-0.0	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bodo/Glimt	11	8	1	2	+13	+9.1	25
2	Viking	10	7	1	2	+6	+2.5	22
3	Tromso	9	6	1	2	+2	-2.8	19
4	Molde	11	5	2	4	+6	+5.8	17
5	Lillestrom	10	4	3	3	-1	+0.5	15
6	Sarpsborg 08	11	4	2	5	-4	+1.7	14
7	Valerenga	10	3	4	3	+1	-4.1	13
8	Odd	12	3	3	6	-6	-3.3	12
9	Stromsgodset	11	3	2	6	-5	-2.5	11
10	Brann	9	3	1	5	-3	-2.3	10
11	Rosenborg	10	2	3	5	-7	-2.1	9
12	Haugesund	11	1	3	7	-11	-2.0	6
13	Ham-Kam	9	2	0	7	-15	-2.8	6
14	Sandefjord	11	1	2	8	-17	-5.1	5
15	Stabaek	10	1	1	8	-16	+0.2	4
16	Aalesund	10	0	0	10	-26	-6.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.