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Serie B
Referee: Francesco Fourneau
Bari
U U S T S
1–0
Full-time
Cesena
T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bari Cesena
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
2,7
2,7
Scored
1,2
1,3
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,0
This season — Serie B · 9/10 matches
Win Ø 41%
22%
60%
Points per game
1,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
56%
70%
Both score Ø 79%
67%
90%
Average goals
2,7
2,8
Scored
1,0
1,6
Conceded
1,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

44% Possession 56%
9 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 5
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 4
0 Offside 3
8 Free kicks against 15
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Bari 16. · Cesena 4.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Frosinone 11 6 3 2 +11 +2.6 21
2 Modena 10 6 3 1 +10 +0.4 21
3 Monza 10 6 2 2 +7 +1.2 20
4 Cesena 10 6 2 2 +4 +0.8 20
5 Palermo 11 5 4 2 +7 -1.2 19
6 Venezia 10 4 4 2 +7 16
7 Avellino 11 4 4 3 -3 +0.2 16
8 Reggiana 11 4 3 4 +0 -0.4 15
9 Carrarese 11 3 5 3 +2 -0.8 14
10 Juve Stabia 9 3 5 1 +2 14
11 Padova 11 3 5 3 -1 14
12 Virtus Entella 11 3 4 4 -5 -2.6 13
13 Catanzaro 10 2 6 2 +1 12
14 Sudtirol 11 2 5 4 -3 11
15 Empoli 11 2 5 4 -5 -0.7 11
16 Bari 9 2 3 4 -6 9
17 Pescara 11 1 5 5 -8 -0.2 8
18 Spezia 10 1 4 5 -4 7
19 Sampdoria 10 1 4 5 -5 +0.7 7
20 Mantova 10 1 2 7 -11 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Bari Cesena
M. Verreth 🔁
↦ E. Darboe
17′
Half-time 0–0
C. Gytkjaer 🔁
↦ M. Antonucci
58′
M. Braunoder 🔁
↦ G. Maggiore
58′
58′
🔁 E. Adamo
↦ G. Frabotta
64′
🔁 S. Bastoni
↦ M. Castagnetti
64′
🔁 S. Balde
↦ C. Shpendi
69′
🟨 Riccardo Ciervo
Andrea Meroni 🟨
72′
A. Partipilo 🔁
↦ G. Castrovilli
78′
L. Cerri 🔁
↦ G. Moncini
78′
1–0 C. Gytkjaer
L. Dickmann
79′
81′
🔁 R. Celia
↦ R. Ciervo
81′
🔁 M. Olivieri
↦ T. Berti
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Bari

3-4-2-1
31 M. Cerofolini G
25 R. Pucino D
13 A. Meroni D
43 D. Nikolaou D
24 L. Dickmann M
18 G. Maggiore M
5 E. Darboe M
93 M. Dorval M
16 M. Antonucci F
4 G. Castrovilli F
11 G. Moncini F
Bench (12)
1 M. Pissardo
3 R. Burgio
8 R. Pagano
9 C. Gytkjaer
10 N. Bellomo
17 E. Rao
20 G. Pereiro
21 A. Partipilo
27 M. Braunoder
29 M. Verreth
76 I. Mavraj
99 L. Cerri

Coach: Fabio Caserta

Cesena

3-5-2
33 J. Klinsmann G
15 A. Ciofi D
19 G. Zaro D
24 M. Mangraviti D
11 R. Ciervo M
14 T. Berti M
4 M. Castagnetti M
70 M. Francesconi M
99 G. Frabotta M
7 J. Blesa F
9 C. Shpendi F
Bench (12)
6 T. Arrigoni
10 S. Bastoni
13 R. Celia
16 P. Amoran
17 E. Adamo
18 M. Guidi
26 M. Piacentini
29 S. Balde
32 M. Olivieri
39 N. Fontana
40 L. Ferretti
43 F. Bertaccini

Coach: Michele Mignani

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,84
U
3,05
B
2,46
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,19
U2,5 ✓
1,62
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Francesco Fourneau · 14 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
27,5 / match
Average

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.