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Serie B

Referee: Gianluca Manganiello

Bari

U T T U U

2–1

Full-time

Padova

U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bari Padova

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,2

This season — Serie B · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

50% Possession 50%

15 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 7

6 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 7

0 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Bari 17. · Padova 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Frosinone	6	4	2	0	+9	14
2	Modena	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Palermo	6	3	3	0	+5	12
4	Avellino	6	3	2	1	+2	11
5	Cesena	6	3	2	1	+2	11
6	Juve Stabia	6	2	4	0	+3	10
7	Sudtirol	6	2	3	1	+2	9
8	Venezia	6	2	3	1	+2	9
9	Monza	6	2	2	2	+0	8
10	Padova	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Carrarese	6	1	4	1	+1	7
12	Catanzaro	6	0	6	0	+0	6
13	Reggiana	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Virtus Entella	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Empoli	6	1	3	2	-4	6
16	Pescara	6	1	2	3	+0	5
17	Bari	6	0	3	3	-6	3
18	Spezia	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Mantova	6	1	0	5	-8	3
20	Sampdoria	6	0	2	4	-6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Palermo	4	2	2	0	+3	8
2	Frosinone	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Modena	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Avellino	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Empoli	4	1	3	0	+2	6
6	Sudtirol	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Venezia	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Monza	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Pescara	4	1	2	1	+2	5
10	Reggiana	3	1	2	0	+2	5
11	Virtus Entella	3	1	2	0	+1	5
12	Juve Stabia	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Padova	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Catanzaro	3	0	3	0	+0	3
15	Mantova	3	1	0	2	-5	3
16	Bari	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Cesena	2	0	2	0	+0	2
18	Carrarese	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Sampdoria	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	Spezia	3	0	1	2	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cesena	4	3	0	1	+2	9
2	Frosinone	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Modena	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Juve Stabia	3	1	2	0	+2	5
5	Carrarese	3	1	2	0	+2	5
6	Avellino	4	1	2	1	-1	5
7	Palermo	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Padova	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Sudtirol	3	0	3	0	+0	3
10	Catanzaro	3	0	3	0	+0	3
11	Venezia	3	0	3	0	+0	3
12	Monza	3	0	2	1	-1	2
13	Spezia	3	0	2	1	-2	2
14	Sampdoria	3	0	1	2	-3	1
15	Reggiana	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Virtus Entella	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Bari	4	0	1	3	-6	1
18	Pescara	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Mantova	3	0	0	3	-3	0
20	Empoli	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.