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Championship

Referee: M Salisbury

Derby

T U T S T

0–1

Full-time

Norwich

S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Norwich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,2

Scored

0,8

2,7

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+2,2

This season — Championship · 40/40 matches

Win Ø 47%

28%

65%

Points per game

1,1

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

28%

40%

Both score Ø 39%

30%

48%

Average goals

1,9

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,6

Conceded

1,1

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

38% Possession 62%

11 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 6

4 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 18. · Norwich 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	40	26	9	5	+36	87
2	Watford	41	24	10	7	+32	82
3	Barnsley	38	20	8	10	+12	68
4	Brentford	37	18	12	7	+25	66
5	Reading	41	19	9	13	+11	66
6	Bournemouth	38	18	11	9	+23	65
7	Swansea	37	19	8	10	+13	65
8	Cardiff	40	16	10	14	+12	58
9	Millwall	41	14	16	11	+1	58
10	Middlesbrough	40	16	9	15	+5	57
11	Stoke	40	14	13	13	+1	55
12	QPR	39	14	11	14	-3	53
13	Luton	39	14	8	17	-13	50
14	Bristol City	40	15	4	21	-15	49
15	Nott'm Forest	40	12	12	16	-5	48
16	Preston	40	14	6	20	-9	48
17	Blackburn	40	12	10	18	+5	46
18	Derby	40	11	10	19	-15	43
19	Huddersfield	39	11	10	18	-18	43
20	Coventry	39	10	12	17	-17	42
21	Birmingham	40	10	12	18	-21	42
22	Sheffield Weds	39	11	8	20	-15	41
23	Rotherham	36	10	5	21	-13	35
24	Wycombe	40	8	9	23	-32	33

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	21	17	2	2	+29	53
2	Norwich	20	13	6	1	+24	45
3	Bournemouth	20	12	3	5	+16	39
4	Reading	20	12	1	7	+10	37
5	Swansea	19	10	5	4	+9	35
6	Barnsley	19	10	5	4	+7	35
7	Middlesbrough	20	10	4	6	+7	34
8	Brentford	17	9	6	2	+15	33
9	Stoke	20	9	4	7	+4	31
10	QPR	20	9	4	7	+2	31
11	Coventry	20	8	7	5	+2	31
12	Huddersfield	19	8	5	6	+7	29
13	Millwall	21	6	10	5	+0	28
14	Sheffield Weds	19	7	6	6	+6	27
15	Luton	19	7	6	6	+1	27
16	Cardiff	20	7	4	9	+10	25
17	Blackburn	20	6	7	7	+2	25
18	Nott'm Forest	20	6	7	7	+0	25
19	Derby	20	6	6	8	-4	24
20	Bristol City	20	7	2	11	-9	23
21	Preston	20	5	5	10	-3	20
22	Wycombe	20	5	5	10	-11	20
23	Birmingham	20	5	3	12	-17	18
24	Rotherham	18	4	3	11	-8	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	20	13	3	4	+12	42
2	Brentford	20	9	6	5	+10	33
3	Barnsley	19	10	3	6	+5	33
4	Cardiff	20	9	6	5	+2	33
5	Swansea	18	9	3	6	+4	30
6	Millwall	20	8	6	6	+1	30
7	Watford	20	7	8	5	+3	29
8	Reading	21	7	8	6	+1	29
9	Preston	20	9	1	10	-6	28
10	Bournemouth	18	6	8	4	+7	26
11	Bristol City	20	8	2	10	-6	26
12	Stoke	20	5	9	6	-3	24
13	Birmingham	20	5	9	6	-4	24
14	Middlesbrough	20	6	5	9	-2	23
15	Nott'm Forest	20	6	5	9	-5	23
16	Luton	20	7	2	11	-14	23
17	QPR	19	5	7	7	-5	22
18	Blackburn	20	6	3	11	+3	21
19	Rotherham	18	6	2	10	-5	20
20	Derby	20	5	4	11	-11	19
21	Sheffield Weds	20	4	2	14	-21	14
22	Huddersfield	20	3	5	12	-25	14
23	Wycombe	20	3	4	13	-21	13
24	Coventry	19	2	5	12	-19	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.