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Championship

Referee: Geoff Eltringham

Derby

S T U S T

1–1

Full-time

Norwich

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Norwich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

This season — Championship · 9/10 matches

Win Ø 53%

56%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

44%

50%

Both score Ø 47%

44%

50%

Average goals

2,1

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

57% Possession 43%

14 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 8

0 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 9. · Norwich 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	11	6	4	1	+10	22
2	West Brom	10	6	2	2	+11	20
3	Leeds	10	5	4	1	+10	19
4	Sheffield United	10	6	1	3	+5	19
5	Brentford	11	4	5	2	+6	17
6	Swansea	11	4	5	2	+4	17
7	Wigan	11	5	2	4	+2	17
8	Norwich	10	5	2	3	+1	17
9	Derby	9	5	1	3	+5	16
10	Bristol City	10	4	3	3	+3	15
11	Nott'm Forest	10	3	6	1	+2	15
12	Aston Villa	11	3	6	2	+1	15
13	Sheffield Weds	10	4	3	3	+0	15
14	Blackburn	10	3	6	1	+0	15
15	Bolton	11	4	3	4	-4	15
16	Stoke	11	3	4	4	-2	13
17	QPR	11	4	1	6	-10	13
18	Birmingham	11	1	8	2	-1	11
19	Rotherham	10	3	1	6	-8	10
20	Reading	11	2	3	6	-2	9
21	Hull	11	2	2	7	-8	8
22	Millwall	10	1	3	6	-7	6
23	Ipswich	11	0	6	5	-8	6
24	Preston	11	1	3	7	-10	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brentford	6	4	2	0	+9	14
2	Wigan	6	4	2	0	+4	14
3	Middlesbrough	5	4	1	0	+7	13
4	West Brom	5	4	0	1	+10	12
5	Nott'm Forest	5	3	2	0	+3	11
6	Leeds	5	3	1	1	+6	10
7	Derby	4	3	1	0	+6	10
8	Sheffield United	5	3	1	1	+4	10
9	Rotherham	5	3	1	1	+2	10
10	Stoke	6	3	1	2	+1	10
11	Aston Villa	6	2	3	1	+2	9
12	Sheffield Weds	5	2	3	0	+2	9
13	Norwich	5	3	0	2	+0	9
14	Swansea	5	2	2	1	+3	8
15	Bristol City	5	2	2	1	+2	8
16	Blackburn	5	1	4	0	+1	7
17	Bolton	5	2	1	2	-2	7
18	QPR	5	2	0	3	-2	6
19	Birmingham	5	0	5	0	+0	5
20	Preston	5	1	2	2	-1	5
21	Millwall	5	1	2	2	-1	5
22	Ipswich	6	0	5	1	-2	5
23	Hull	6	1	1	4	-3	4
24	Reading	6	1	0	5	-2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	5	2	3	0	+4	9
2	Middlesbrough	6	2	3	1	+3	9
3	Sheffield United	5	3	0	2	+1	9
4	Swansea	6	2	3	1	+1	9
5	West Brom	5	2	2	1	+1	8
6	Norwich	5	2	2	1	+1	8
7	Blackburn	5	2	2	1	-1	8
8	Bolton	6	2	2	2	-2	8
9	Bristol City	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	QPR	6	2	1	3	-8	7
11	Reading	5	1	3	1	+0	6
12	Aston Villa	5	1	3	1	-1	6
13	Birmingham	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Derby	5	2	0	3	-1	6
15	Sheffield Weds	5	2	0	3	-2	6
16	Nott'm Forest	5	0	4	1	-1	4
17	Hull	5	1	1	3	-5	4
18	Wigan	5	1	0	4	-2	3
19	Stoke	5	0	3	2	-3	3
20	Brentford	5	0	3	2	-3	3
21	Ipswich	5	0	1	4	-6	1
22	Millwall	5	0	1	4	-6	1
23	Preston	6	0	1	5	-9	1
24	Rotherham	5	0	0	5	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.