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Championship

Referee: A Woolmer

Derby

T U T U T

2–0

Full-time

Luton

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

1,8

2,2

Scored

0,3

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,2

This season — Championship · 38/37 matches

Win Ø 32%

26%

38%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 27%

26%

27%

Both score Ø 30%

29%

30%

Average goals

1,8

1,9

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

43% Possession 57%

11 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 19. · Luton 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	38	25	8	5	+29	83
2	Watford	38	22	9	7	+29	75
3	Brentford	35	18	10	7	+25	64
4	Barnsley	36	19	7	10	+11	64
5	Swansea	34	18	8	8	+12	62
6	Reading	38	18	8	12	+11	62
7	Bournemouth	36	16	11	9	+19	59
8	Cardiff	38	16	10	12	+18	58
9	Middlesbrough	38	16	8	14	+7	56
10	Millwall	38	12	16	10	+2	52
11	Stoke	38	13	13	12	+0	52
12	QPR	37	13	11	13	-4	50
13	Luton	37	14	8	15	-10	50
14	Bristol City	38	15	4	19	-11	49
15	Blackburn	38	12	10	16	+8	46
16	Preston	38	13	5	20	-10	44
17	Nott'm Forest	38	10	12	16	-8	42
18	Huddersfield	37	11	9	17	-11	42
19	Derby	38	10	10	18	-15	40
20	Coventry	37	9	12	16	-16	39
21	Sheffield Weds	37	10	8	19	-19	38
22	Birmingham	38	9	11	18	-22	38
23	Rotherham	34	10	5	19	-9	35
24	Wycombe	38	6	9	23	-36	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	19	15	2	2	+26	47
2	Norwich	19	12	6	1	+17	42
3	Bournemouth	19	11	3	5	+14	36
4	Swansea	18	10	5	3	+10	35
5	Reading	19	11	1	7	+8	34
6	Barnsley	18	10	4	4	+7	34
7	Middlesbrough	19	10	3	6	+7	33
8	Brentford	16	9	5	2	+15	32
9	Stoke	19	9	4	6	+5	31
10	Huddersfield	18	8	4	6	+7	28
11	Coventry	19	7	7	5	+0	28
12	QPR	19	8	4	7	-1	28
13	Luton	18	7	6	5	+2	27
14	Cardiff	19	7	4	8	+11	25
15	Blackburn	19	6	7	6	+4	25
16	Millwall	19	5	10	4	+2	25
17	Sheffield Weds	18	6	6	6	+1	24
18	Bristol City	19	7	2	10	-7	23
19	Nott'm Forest	19	5	7	7	-2	22
20	Derby	19	5	6	8	-6	21
21	Preston	19	5	4	10	-3	19
22	Wycombe	19	4	5	10	-12	17
23	Rotherham	17	4	3	10	-5	15
24	Birmingham	19	4	3	12	-18	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	19	13	2	4	+12	41
2	Cardiff	19	9	6	4	+7	33
3	Brentford	19	9	5	5	+10	32
4	Barnsley	18	9	3	6	+4	30
5	Reading	19	7	7	5	+3	28
6	Watford	19	7	7	5	+3	28
7	Swansea	16	8	3	5	+2	27
8	Millwall	19	7	6	6	+0	27
9	Bristol City	19	8	2	9	-4	26
10	Preston	19	8	1	10	-7	25
11	Bournemouth	17	5	8	4	+5	23
12	Middlesbrough	19	6	5	8	+0	23
13	Birmingham	19	5	8	6	-4	23
14	Luton	19	7	2	10	-12	23
15	QPR	18	5	7	6	-3	22
16	Blackburn	19	6	3	10	+4	21
17	Stoke	19	4	9	6	-5	21
18	Rotherham	17	6	2	9	-4	20
19	Nott'm Forest	19	5	5	9	-6	20
20	Derby	19	5	4	10	-9	19
21	Huddersfield	19	3	5	11	-18	14
22	Sheffield Weds	19	4	2	13	-20	14
23	Coventry	18	2	5	11	-16	11
24	Wycombe	19	2	4	13	-24	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.