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La Liga

Referee: Jesús Gil

Real Madrid

U U S S S

2–1

Full-time

Barcelona

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Barcelona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

67%

100%

Points per game

2,3

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

1,7

3,0

Conceded

0,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,7

This season — La Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 68%

66%

69%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

41%

59%

Both score Ø 54%

55%

52%

Average goals

2,6

3,2

Scored

1,8

2,3

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

31% Possession 69%

14 Shots 18

3 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 3. · Barcelona 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	29	20	6	3	+32	66
2	Barcelona	29	20	5	4	+44	65
3	Real Madrid	29	19	6	4	+28	63
4	Sevilla	29	18	4	7	+19	58
5	Sociedad	29	12	10	7	+16	46
6	Villarreal	29	11	13	5	+11	46
7	Betis	29	14	4	11	-3	46
8	Levante	30	9	11	10	-2	38
9	Ath Bilbao	30	9	10	11	+6	37
10	Celta	29	9	10	10	-6	37
11	Granada	29	10	6	13	-15	36
12	Cadiz	30	9	8	13	-18	35
13	Valencia	29	8	9	12	-5	33
14	Osasuna	29	7	10	12	-12	31
15	Getafe	30	7	9	14	-12	30
16	Valladolid	29	5	12	12	-13	27
17	Huesca	30	5	12	13	-14	27
18	Elche	30	5	11	14	-19	26
19	Alaves	30	5	9	16	-23	24
20	Eibar	30	4	11	15	-14	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	15	11	3	1	+21	36
2	Barcelona	15	10	4	1	+23	34
3	Sevilla	15	11	1	3	+14	34
4	Real Madrid	14	10	1	3	+16	31
5	Granada	15	8	3	4	+1	27
6	Betis	14	8	2	4	+4	26
7	Ath Bilbao	15	7	4	4	+10	25
8	Sociedad	15	6	6	3	+8	24
9	Villarreal	14	6	6	2	+5	24
10	Valencia	14	6	5	3	+6	23
11	Levante	15	5	7	3	+2	22
12	Celta	14	6	3	5	-2	21
13	Getafe	16	5	5	6	+2	20
14	Osasuna	15	4	5	6	-6	17
15	Elche	14	3	7	4	-5	16
16	Cadiz	15	4	4	7	-9	16
17	Huesca	15	3	6	6	-4	15
18	Valladolid	14	3	5	6	-7	14
19	Alaves	15	3	5	7	-8	14
20	Eibar	15	1	6	8	-10	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	15	9	5	1	+12	32
2	Barcelona	14	10	1	3	+21	31
3	Ath Madrid	14	9	3	2	+11	30
4	Sevilla	14	7	3	4	+5	24
5	Sociedad	14	6	4	4	+8	22
6	Villarreal	15	5	7	3	+6	22
7	Betis	15	6	2	7	-7	20
8	Cadiz	15	5	4	6	-9	19
9	Celta	15	3	7	5	-4	16
10	Levante	15	4	4	7	-4	16
11	Eibar	15	3	5	7	-4	14
12	Osasuna	14	3	5	6	-6	14
13	Valladolid	15	2	7	6	-6	13
14	Ath Bilbao	15	2	6	7	-4	12
15	Huesca	15	2	6	7	-10	12
16	Valencia	15	2	4	9	-11	10
17	Elche	16	2	4	10	-14	10
18	Getafe	14	2	4	8	-14	10
19	Alaves	15	2	4	9	-15	10
20	Granada	14	2	3	9	-16	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.