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Championship

Referee: D England

Derby

S U T T U

0–1

Full-time

Millwall

U U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

This season — Championship · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

1,1

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 29%

26%

31%

Both score Ø 40%

29%

51%

Average goals

1,8

1,9

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,1

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

70% Possession 30%

13 Shots 2

3 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 1

10 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 18. · Millwall 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	35	23	7	5	+26	76
2	Watford	35	19	9	7	+22	66
3	Brentford	33	18	8	7	+25	62
4	Swansea	32	18	8	6	+16	62
5	Reading	35	18	6	11	+12	60
6	Barnsley	33	17	7	9	+9	58
7	Bournemouth	34	15	11	8	+17	56
8	Cardiff	35	15	9	11	+18	54
9	Middlesbrough	35	14	8	13	+3	50
10	Stoke	35	12	12	11	+2	48
11	Millwall	35	10	16	9	+1	46
12	QPR	34	12	10	12	-4	46
13	Bristol City	35	14	3	18	-12	45
14	Blackburn	36	12	8	16	+8	44
15	Preston	35	13	5	17	-6	44
16	Luton	35	12	8	15	-13	44
17	Nott'm Forest	35	10	10	15	-6	40
18	Derby	35	10	9	16	-13	39
19	Huddersfield	35	10	8	17	-12	38
20	Coventry	35	9	11	15	-14	38
21	Birmingham	35	8	11	16	-17	35
22	Sheffield Weds	34	9	7	18	-19	34
23	Rotherham	32	9	5	18	-8	32
24	Wycombe	35	5	8	22	-35	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	18	14	2	2	+23	44
2	Norwich	18	12	5	1	+17	41
3	Swansea	17	10	5	2	+11	35
4	Barnsley	17	10	4	3	+8	34
5	Bournemouth	17	10	3	4	+12	33
6	Reading	18	11	0	7	+8	33
7	Brentford	15	9	4	2	+15	31
8	Huddersfield	18	8	4	6	+7	28
9	Stoke	18	8	4	6	+4	28
10	Middlesbrough	17	8	3	6	+2	27
11	Coventry	18	7	6	5	+0	27
12	QPR	17	7	4	6	-1	25
13	Cardiff	17	7	3	7	+12	24
14	Blackburn	18	6	6	6	+4	24
15	Luton	17	6	6	5	+0	24
16	Sheffield Weds	16	6	5	5	+2	23
17	Bristol City	18	7	2	9	-5	23
18	Millwall	18	4	10	4	+1	22
19	Nott'm Forest	17	5	6	6	+0	21
20	Derby	17	5	5	7	-5	20
21	Preston	18	5	4	9	-2	19
22	Rotherham	16	4	3	9	-2	15
23	Wycombe	17	3	5	9	-11	14
24	Birmingham	17	3	3	11	-16	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	17	11	2	4	+9	35
2	Brentford	18	9	4	5	+10	31
3	Cardiff	18	8	6	4	+6	30
4	Swansea	15	8	3	4	+5	27
5	Reading	17	7	6	4	+4	27
6	Preston	17	8	1	8	-4	25
7	Barnsley	16	7	3	6	+1	24
8	Millwall	17	6	6	5	+0	24
9	Bournemouth	17	5	8	4	+5	23
10	Middlesbrough	18	6	5	7	+1	23
11	Birmingham	18	5	8	5	-1	23
12	Watford	17	5	7	5	-1	22
13	Bristol City	17	7	1	9	-7	22
14	QPR	17	5	6	6	-3	21
15	Blackburn	18	6	2	10	+4	20
16	Stoke	17	4	8	5	-2	20
17	Luton	18	6	2	10	-13	20
18	Nott'm Forest	18	5	4	9	-6	19
19	Derby	18	5	4	9	-8	19
20	Rotherham	16	5	2	9	-6	17
21	Coventry	17	2	5	10	-14	11
22	Sheffield Weds	18	3	2	13	-21	11
23	Huddersfield	17	2	4	11	-19	10
24	Wycombe	18	2	3	13	-24	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.