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Championship

Referee: David Webb

Norwich

S S U S U

3–4

Full-time

Derby

S S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Norwich Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

This season — Championship · 24/23 matches

Win Ø 53%

58%

48%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

58%

52%

Both score Ø 62%

58%

65%

Average goals

3,0

2,4

Scored

1,8

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

62% Possession 38%

24 Shots 19

7 Shots on target 5

11 Blocked shots 7

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 7

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Norwich 2. · Derby 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	23	14	6	3	+17	48
2	Norwich	24	14	6	4	+15	48
3	West Brom	23	13	5	5	+21	44
4	Sheffield United	24	12	5	7	+11	41
5	Derby	23	11	6	6	+8	39
6	Middlesbrough	24	10	9	5	+8	39
7	Birmingham	24	9	10	5	+10	37
8	QPR	24	11	4	9	-1	37
9	Nott'm Forest	24	8	12	4	+9	36
10	Aston Villa	23	9	8	6	+9	35
11	Stoke	24	8	10	6	+1	34
12	Swansea	24	9	5	10	+1	32
13	Bristol City	24	8	8	8	+1	32
14	Blackburn	24	7	10	7	-6	31
15	Hull	24	8	6	10	-5	30
16	Sheffield Weds	24	8	6	10	-10	30
17	Preston	24	7	7	10	-4	28
18	Brentford	24	6	8	10	+0	26
19	Wigan	24	7	4	13	-12	25
20	Millwall	24	5	7	12	-10	22
21	Rotherham	24	4	10	10	-16	22
22	Bolton	24	5	6	13	-15	21
23	Reading	24	4	7	13	-10	19
24	Ipswich	24	2	9	13	-22	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	12	8	3	1	+13	27
2	Norwich	12	8	1	3	+5	25
3	West Brom	11	7	2	2	+15	23
4	Derby	11	6	4	1	+7	22
5	QPR	12	7	1	4	+6	22
6	Birmingham	12	5	6	1	+9	21
7	Sheffield United	12	6	3	3	+7	21
8	Stoke	12	6	3	3	+4	21
9	Wigan	12	6	3	3	+2	21
10	Brentford	12	6	2	4	+8	20
11	Aston Villa	12	5	5	2	+6	20
12	Preston	12	5	4	3	+7	19
13	Millwall	12	5	4	3	+3	19
14	Nott'm Forest	12	5	4	3	+3	19
15	Middlesbrough	12	5	4	3	+3	19
16	Blackburn	12	4	6	2	+2	18
17	Rotherham	12	4	6	2	-1	18
18	Swansea	12	5	2	5	+2	17
19	Sheffield Weds	12	4	5	3	-2	17
20	Hull	12	4	3	5	-1	15
21	Bristol City	12	3	5	4	+0	14
22	Reading	12	3	2	7	-2	11
23	Bolton	12	3	2	7	-8	11
24	Ipswich	12	1	7	4	-5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	12	6	5	1	+10	23
2	West Brom	12	6	3	3	+6	21
3	Leeds	11	6	3	2	+4	21
4	Middlesbrough	12	5	5	2	+5	20
5	Sheffield United	12	6	2	4	+4	20
6	Bristol City	12	5	3	4	+1	18
7	Nott'm Forest	12	3	8	1	+6	17
8	Derby	12	5	2	5	+1	17
9	Birmingham	12	4	4	4	+1	16
10	Aston Villa	11	4	3	4	+3	15
11	Swansea	12	4	3	5	-1	15
12	Hull	12	4	3	5	-4	15
13	QPR	12	4	3	5	-7	15
14	Stoke	12	2	7	3	-3	13
15	Blackburn	12	3	4	5	-8	13
16	Sheffield Weds	12	4	1	7	-8	13
17	Bolton	12	2	4	6	-7	10
18	Preston	12	2	3	7	-11	9
19	Reading	12	1	5	6	-8	8
20	Brentford	12	0	6	6	-8	6
21	Ipswich	12	1	2	9	-17	5
22	Wigan	12	1	1	10	-14	4
23	Rotherham	12	0	4	8	-15	4
24	Millwall	12	0	3	9	-13	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.