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Championship

Referee: Jeremy Simpson

Derby

U S U U S

1–1

Full-time

Norwich

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Norwich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

1,5

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

0,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,5

This season — Championship · 29/30 matches

Win Ø 48%

55%

40%

Points per game

1,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

45%

37%

Both score Ø 43%

38%

47%

Average goals

2,3

2,1

Scored

1,6

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

41% Possession 59%

7 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 1

1 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 2. · Norwich 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	30	21	5	4	+32	68
2	Derby	29	16	8	5	+24	56
3	Cardiff	30	16	7	7	+18	55
4	Bristol City	30	14	9	7	+9	51
5	Fulham	28	14	8	6	+17	50
6	Aston Villa	27	14	7	6	+17	49
7	Sheffield United	31	15	4	12	+7	49
8	Preston	30	12	12	6	+8	48
9	Middlesbrough	28	13	5	10	+11	44
10	Leeds	31	13	5	13	+3	44
11	Brentford	30	11	10	9	+3	43
12	Ipswich	30	13	4	13	+2	43
13	Norwich	30	12	7	11	-3	43
14	Millwall	31	9	12	10	+2	39
15	QPR	30	9	9	12	-10	36
16	Nott'm Forest	30	11	2	17	-13	35
17	Sheffield Weds	31	7	13	11	-6	34
18	Reading	30	8	8	14	-6	32
19	Birmingham	30	8	6	16	-19	30
20	Bolton	29	7	8	14	-19	29
21	Barnsley	31	6	10	15	-15	28
22	Hull	30	5	11	14	-7	26
23	Sunderland	30	5	10	15	-21	25
24	Burton Albion	30	6	6	18	-34	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	15	11	2	2	+19	35
2	Cardiff	14	9	3	2	+16	30
3	Derby	15	9	3	3	+16	30
4	Sheffield United	16	9	2	5	+10	29
5	Aston Villa	13	8	4	1	+14	28
6	Millwall	16	7	6	3	+8	27
7	Bristol City	15	8	3	4	+8	27
8	Fulham	14	7	5	2	+12	26
9	Ipswich	15	8	2	5	+9	26
10	Brentford	15	6	7	2	+8	25
11	QPR	15	7	4	4	+1	25
12	Middlesbrough	14	7	3	4	+5	24
13	Preston	15	6	6	3	+4	24
14	Leeds	15	6	4	5	+4	22
15	Bolton	15	6	3	6	-2	21
16	Nott'm Forest	15	7	0	8	-4	21
17	Norwich	15	5	5	5	+0	20
18	Birmingham	15	6	2	7	-6	20
19	Hull	15	4	6	5	+7	18
20	Sheffield Weds	15	4	6	5	-2	18
21	Barnsley	16	3	6	7	-7	15
22	Reading	15	3	4	8	-6	13
23	Sunderland	15	2	5	8	-9	11
24	Burton Albion	15	2	2	11	-20	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	15	10	3	2	+13	33
2	Derby	14	7	5	2	+8	26
3	Cardiff	16	7	4	5	+2	25
4	Fulham	14	7	3	4	+5	24
5	Preston	15	6	6	3	+4	24
6	Bristol City	15	6	6	3	+1	24
7	Norwich	15	7	2	6	-3	23
8	Leeds	16	7	1	8	-1	22
9	Aston Villa	14	6	3	5	+3	21
10	Middlesbrough	14	6	2	6	+6	20
11	Sheffield United	15	6	2	7	-3	20
12	Reading	15	5	4	6	+0	19
13	Brentford	15	5	3	7	-5	18
14	Ipswich	15	5	2	8	-7	17
15	Sheffield Weds	16	3	7	6	-4	16
16	Burton Albion	15	4	4	7	-14	16
17	Nott'm Forest	15	4	2	9	-9	14
18	Sunderland	15	3	5	7	-12	14
19	Barnsley	15	3	4	8	-8	13
20	Millwall	15	2	6	7	-6	12
21	QPR	15	2	5	8	-11	11
22	Birmingham	15	2	4	9	-13	10
23	Hull	15	1	5	9	-14	8
24	Bolton	14	1	5	8	-17	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.